The U.S. dollar rose to a more than eight-month peak against its major counterparts on Friday, as demand for the greenback remained underpinned amid growing confidence the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when in meets next month. Trading volumes were thin on Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. The U.S. stock market closed at 1:00PM Friday after being closed Thursday for Thanksgiving.
Crowds were thin at U.S. stores and shopping malls on the Black Friday and on Thanksgiving evening, as shoppers responded to early holiday discounts with caution and bad weather hurt turnout. Bargain hunters found relatively little competition compared with previous years.
Today In the euro area, Germany is to release preliminary data on inflation as well as a report on retail sales. The U.S. is to publish a report on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region as well as private sector data on pending home sales.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November, the last jobs report before the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates at its December 15-16 meeting.
The euro re-approached seven-month lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday, as expectations for a December rate hike in the U.S. broadly supported the greenback, while speculation over additional easing measures in the euro zone pressured the single currency lower.
Now traders are looking ahead to this week's European Central Bank meeting, due on the 3rd of December, for further signals of potential divergence in monetary policies in the U.S. and the euro zone.
Pivot: 1.064Support: 1.057 1.052 1.048Resistance: 1.064 1.068 1.071Scenario 1: Short positions below 1.064 with targets @ 1.057 & 1.052 in extension.Scenario 2: Above 1.064 look for further upside with 1.068 & 1.071 as targets.Comment: A break below 1.057 would trigger a drop towards 1.052.
Gold
Gold prices ended the week at the lowest level since February 2010 on Friday, as market players braced for a hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve next month.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November, the last jobs report before the Federal Reserve decides on interest rates at its December 15-16 meeting.
The outcome of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting will also be in focus amid speculation the central bank could ramp up its monetary stimulus program.
Pivot: 1064Support: 1050 1044 1038Resistance: 1064 1069.5 1074Scenario 1: Short positions below 1064 with targets @ 1050 & 1044 in extension.Scenario 2: Above 1064 look for further upside with 1069.5 & 1074 as targets.Comment: As long as 1064 is resistance, likely decline to 1050.
WTI Oil
Oil prices fell sharply in low-volume trade on Friday, as concerns about a global supply glut continued to pressure prices. The possibility of higher interest rates in the U.S., a stronger U.S. dollar and slower global economic growth, especially in China, further weighed.
Furthermore, Russia threatened economic retaliation against Turkey on Thursday and said it was still awaiting a reasonable explanation, but Turkey dismissed the threats as "emotional" and "unfitting".
While Syria is not a major oil producer, investors fear that the conflict could spill over to affect oil supplies in nearby countries.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will meet on Friday, December 4, to review their output strategy. Most market analysts expect the oil cartel to keep their production quota unchanged despite falling prices.
Pivot: 42.4Support: 41.26 40.96 40.43Resistance: 42.4 42.75 43.32Scenario 1: Short positions below 42.4 with targets @ 41.26 & 40.96 in extension.Scenario 2: Above 42.4 look for further upside with 42.75 & 43.32 as targets.Comment: As long as 42.4 is resistance, likely decline to 41.26.
NASDAQ 100
U.S. stock indexes ended little changed in light trading Friday, with consumer stocks falling as investors fretted over early reports on the U.S. holiday shopping season and Walt Disney Co.’s subscriber losses weighing on the market. U.S. stock markets closed three hours earlier after the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday, with many traders taking the day off.
Trading volume was modest, with 2.79 billion shares changing hands on U.S. exchanges, compared with the 7 billion average for the previous seven sessions.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.08% to 17,798.49; the S&P 500 gained 0.06% to 2,090.11; and the Nasdaq Composite index added 0.22% to 5,127.53.
Pivot: 4273 Support: 4273 4055 3795 Resistance: 4737 4816 4950 Scenario 1: Long positions above 4273 with targets @ 4737 & 4816 in extension. Scenario 2: Below 4273 look for further downside with 4055 & 3795 as targets. Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.