On Tuesday the dollar was down against the euro, but trimmed losses against the other major currencies, despite the release of a weak U.S. consumer confidence report, as data showing that the U.S. economy grew more than initially estimated in the third quarter supported the greenback.
But the main event on Tuesday afternoon was the meeting of the ambassadors from 28 NATO member states in Brussels, to discuss the incident in which Turkey’s military shot down a Russian warplane that violated its airspace near the border with northwestern Syria. Turkey’s action is the first time in decades that a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member has downed a Russian military aircraft. Russia always viewed Turkey as a friendly state, but now President Vladimir Putin accused Turkey of being an accomplice of terrorism for shooting down a Russian warplane in Syria and warned of “very serious consequences” for their relations.
The dollar moved lower against rivals on Wednesday, as investors locked in profits from the greenback's recent rally, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
Today the U.S. is to release a string of reports, including data on durable goods orders, personal spending, new homes sales and consumer sentiment, and a report on initial jobless claims, which is being released one day earlier than usual, because of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, supported by strong German business climate data and by weak US consumer confidence report, although gains were capped by expectations for further stimulus by the European Central Bank and for a U.S. rate hike before the year end.
The German research institute Ifo said its Business Climate Index rose to a 17-month high of 109.0 this month, from a reading of 108.2 in October, beating forecasts for 108.2.
The U.S. Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence sank to a 12 months low of 90.4 this month, from a reading of 99.1 in October, below analysts’ expectations. But the report came shortly after the U.S. Commerce Department said gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.1% in the three months to September, in line with expectations. Preliminary data initially pegged U.S. growth at 1.5% in the third quarter. The U.S. economy grew 3.9% in the second quarter.
EUR/USD inched up also on Wednesday, as currency traders digested further signals of heightened geopolitical instability after Turkey downed a Russia jet on the Syrian border.
Pivot: 1.063Support: 1.063 1.06 1.056Resistance: 1.071 1.074 1.0765Scenario 1: Long positions above 1.063 with targets @ 1.071 & 1.074 in extension.Scenario 2: Below 1.063 look for further downside with 1.06 & 1.056 as targets.Comment: The RSI is well directed.
Gold
Gold rallied on Tuesday, as geopolitical concerns mounted after Turkey shoot down a Russian jet fighter near the Syrian border, after it violated Turkey's airspace on Tuesday. However, Russia's defense ministry said the downed fighter jet did not violate Turkish airspace and Russian President Vladimir Putin added that Turkey backstabbed Russia by downing the Russian warplane and acted as accomplices of the terrorists.
Gold prices tread water in Asia on Wednesday with Middle East tensions in focus.
Today investors awaiting for US reports on: durable goods orders, personal spending, new homes sales, consumer sentiment and initial jobless claims, to gain more information on the strength of the economy.
Pivot: 1067Support: 1067 1063.5 1061Resistance: 1084 1088 1095Scenario 1: Long positions above 1067 with targets @ 1084 & 1088 in extension.Scenario 2: Below 1067 look for further downside with 1063.5 & 1061 as targets.Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
WTI Oil
Crude oil rose on Tuesday as Saudi Arabia's pledge to work towards oil price stability remained in focus. The world's biggest oil producer said Monday it is prepared to use all measures necessary to ensure a stable oil market and that it is ready to cooperate with OPEC and non-OPEC producers in order to stabilize prices. Oil prices rallied more sharply on Tuesday afternoon, after Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border, fueling concerns over a disruption to supplies from the Middle East. There are fears that an escalation of hostilities could set off a conflict across the region and send oil prices skyrocketing.
But WTI fell in Asia on Wednesday, as investors turned to bearish U.S. industry stockpile estimates while keeping a sharp eye on Middle East tensions. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.6 million build in U.S. crude stockpiles last week, far outpacing the 200,000 barrel decline seen.
Today investors will closely watch the government report on crude inventories, which could show an increased by 1.1 million barrels for the week ending on Nov. 20.
Pivot: 41.86Support: 41.86 41.26 40.43Resistance: 43.45 43.9 44.55Scenario 1: Long positions above 41.86 with targets @ 43.45 & 43.9 in extension.Scenario 2: Below 41.86 look for further downside with 41.26 & 40.43 as targets.Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.
U.S. shares closed higher on Tuesday, as energy stocks rose along with oil prices after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border.
The three major U.S. indexes recovered from a morning selloff that was triggered by the overseas news despite some strong U.S. economic data. Oil prices were up more than 2% after a spike in Middle East tensions.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.11% to 17,812.19, the S&P 500 gained 0.12% to 2,089.14 and the Nasdaq added 0.01% to 5,102.81.
Markets will be closed all day Thursday and close early Friday, due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.
Pivot: 1990 Support: 1990 1928 1867 Resistance: 2116 2135 2180 Scenario 1: Long positions above 1990 with targets @ 2116 & 2135 in extension. Scenario 2: Below 1990 look for further downside with 1928 & 1867 as targets. Comment: The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.