The dollar moved back up toward two-and-a-half week highs against the other major currencies on Thursday, as investors shrugged off mixed U.S. economic reports.
The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending April 9 decreased by 13,000 to 253,000, from the previous week’s total of 266,000 which was revised down from 267,000, while analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 3,000 to 270,000 last week. A separate report showed that the U.S. consumer price index rose 0.1% in March, disappointing expectations for a 0.2% gain, after a 0.2% slip the previous month. Year-on-year, consumer prices rose 0.9% last month, confounding expectations for an increase of 1.0%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1% in March, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase, and after a 0.3% gain the previous month.
The dollar strengthened earlier, after data on Wednesday showing that Chinese exports rose for the first time in nine month in March, eased concerns over a China-led slowdown in global growth.
Today Canada is to release data on manufacturing sales, while the U.S. is to round up the week with reports on manufacturing activity in the New York region, industrial production and a preliminary reading of consumer sentiment.
The euro fell mildly on Thursday, extending sharp losses from the previous session, as the dollar surged to fresh a two weeks high, after a strong batch of economic data bolstered support for a June interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The currency pair traded in a tight range between 1.1234 and 1.1295 before settling down 0.12% on the day. The dollar has closed higher against the euro in three consecutive sessions and four of the last six, rallying slightly from five-month lows.
In Europe, consumer inflation throughout the euro zone rose 1.2% in March, one month after inching up by only 0.2% in February.
The strong reading fell in line with consensus estimates. In Italy, CPI ticked up 0.2% last month, also matching consensus forecasts.
Today investors’ focus will be on U.S. reports on manufacturing activity in the New York region, industrial production and a preliminary reading of consumer sentiment, for further information on the greenback’ strength.
Pivot:1.1295Support:1.1231.11851.115Resistance:1.12951.13451.137Scenario 1:short positions below 1.1295 with targets @ 1.1230 & 1.1185 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1.1295 look for further upside with 1.1345 & 1.1370 as targets.Comment:the RSI lacks upward momentum.
Gold
Gold fell sharply on Thursday, extending a considerable sell-off from the previous session, as unexpected easing measures from the Singapore Central Bank boosted the dollar versus the yuan and upbeat U.S. economic data augmented hawkish arguments for a June interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The precious metal traded in a broad range between $1,226.60 and $1,245.80 an ounce, before settling down $21.30 or 1.71% on the session.
fell precipitously in overnight Asian trading, after the Singapore Central Bank rattled global foreign exchange markets by surprisingly introducing fresh easing measures aimed at spurring economic growth and hastening a swifter recovery in core inflation. On Thursday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) lowered the appreciation rate of the Singapore Dollar's nominal effective exchange rate to zero, marking the first time the central bank brought its policy band out of positive territory since 2008.
Pivot:1213.5Support:1235.512441251Resistance:1220.512171214Scenario 1:short positions below 1235.50 with targets @ 1220.50 & 1217.00 in extension.Scenario 2:above 1235.50 look for further upside with 1244.00 & 1251.00 as targets.Comment:the RSI lacks upward momentum.
WTI Oil
Crude futures fell slightly from 2016-yearly highs on Thursday, amid heightened skepticism from investors that a coordinated production freeze at this weekend's meeting in Qatar will have a tangible effect at reducing the excessive supply glut on global markets.
WTI crude for May delivery traded in a broad range between $40.84 and $42.16 a barrel, before settling down 0.74% on the session.
Even if Saudi Arabia, Russia and two other producers agree on a deal to cap output level at Sunday's highly-anticipated summit in Doha, energy traders and analysts remain unsure on whether such a pact could help propel oil back above $50 a barrel. Earlier on Thursday, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), expressed similar doubts that a deal could help boost persistently low oil prices. It said that any agreement between OPEC and Non-OPEC to freeze production near current levels will have "limited impact" on global supply, as markets are unlikely to "rebalance before 2017”.
Today oil traders will focus on Baker Hughes’ rig count.
Pivot:40.3Support:40.339.238.25Resistance:42.543.244.2Scenario 1:long positions above 40.30 with targets @ 42.50 & 43.20 in extension.Scenario 2:below 40.30 look for further downside with 39.20 & 38.25 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
US 30
U.S. stocks were mixed on Thursday, as the Dow Jones Industrial completed one of its strongest 3-day rallies over the last several months, on a quiet day of trading, ahead of a highly-anticipated meeting among major oil producers and the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision at the month.
Yesterday the Dow added 0.10%, while the S&P 500 Composite index gained 0.02%, and the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.03%, amid sharp losses among semiconductor stocks.
The Dow remains less than 100 points below the 18,000 threshold, a level last reached in late-July.
Always on Thursday, Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) narrowly topped analysts' forecasts by one cent with quarterly earnings per share of 0.21. It came as the second-largest bank in the U.S. saw its loan activity surge by 8% to $215 billion, while consumer credit and debit spending jumped 5%, as 1.2 million customers signed up for new credit cards on the period.
Pivot: 17400 Support: 17400 17100 16800 Resistance: 17975 18140 18350 Scenario 1: long positions above 17400 with targets @ 17975 & 18140 in extension. Scenario 2: below 17400 look for further downside with 17100 & 16800 as targets. Comment: investors have to remain cautious since these levels may trigger profit taking.