The dollar ended slightly lower against the yen on Friday despite comments by Japan’s finance minister aimed at weakening the Japanese currency. The dollar initially gained ground against the yen after Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso said that rapid currency moves were undesirable but the dollar reversed early gains amid expectations that Japanese officials will hold off any actions to stem the yen’s gains until at least after next week's G20 meetings in Washington. The Bank of Japan shocked markets with its decision to adopt negative interest rates earlier this year but the yen has continued to strengthen, posing a challenge to the central bank’s attempts to spur price growth. The dollar has been hit by the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to a cautious approach towards raising interest rates in the coming months while the euro’s gains were also restricted after senior European Central Bank officials said on Thursday that further monetary stimulus measures can be implemented if necessary. In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to inflation reports from the U.S. and Europe for any indications that central bank stimulus has helped to spur price growth. Data on first quarter Chinese growth on Friday will also be closely watched amid persistent fears over a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
The euro closed above 1.14 against the dollar for the first time since October, as the dollar remained near five-month lows on Friday, after the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said on Friday that U.S. GDP hardly grew during the first quarter. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, meanwhile, attempted to reassure investors on Thursday evening that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing even as she has expressed hesitancy to raise interest rates due to increased global financial risks. The currency pair traded between 1.1338 and 1.1454, ending the day 0.22% higher. Since the Fed decided to lower its long-term interest rate forecast on March 16, the euro has gained by more than 2.6% against the dollar. In the week ahead, investors will be turning their attention to inflation reports from the U.S. and Europe for any indications that central bank stimulus has helped to spur price growth.
Pivot:1.136Support:1.1331.12951.126Resistance:1.141.1441.146Scenario 1:long positions above 1.1360 with targets @ 1.1430 & 1.1455 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1.1360 look for further downside with 1.1335 & 1.1310 as targets.Comment:the RSI is well directed.
Gold
Gold prices moved higher on Friday to settle at a more than one-week high as a weaker U.S. dollar due to skepticism over the Federal Reserve's ability to raise interest rates as much as it would like this year boosted the yellow metal. Gold prices received some support on Monday as consumer prices fell in China last month and investors eyed easier monetary policy. Prices of the yellow metal are up nearly 14% so far this year as expectations faded that the Fed would move to normalize interest rates due to fears over a China-led global economic slowdown. In the week ahead, market players will be turning their attention to key economic data out of China, with Friday’s first quarter GDP report in the spotlight.
Pivot:1239Support:123912321226Resistance:125512621271Scenario 1:long positions above 1239.00 with targets @ 1255.50 & 1262.00 in extension.Scenario 2:below 1239.00 look for further downside with 1232.00 & 1226.00 as targets.Comment:the RSI is well directed.
WTI Oil
Last week, oil prices gained by more than 6% on Friday to settle at more than two-week highs helped in part by growing hopes major oil producers will work together to cap output at a summit later this month and amid indications U.S. oil producers are cutting back on drilling activity. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by eight last week to 354, the third straight weekly decline. In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. inventory data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals as well as key economic data out of China, with Friday’s first quarter GDP report in the spotlight. Developments surrounding a potential deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cap output will also be in focus.
Pivot:39Support:3938.2537.44Resistance:41.2541.7542.5Scenario 1:long positions above 39.00 with targets @ 41.25 & 41.75 in extension.Scenario 2:below 39.00 look for further downside with 38.25 & 37.44 as targets.Comment:the RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
US 500
A sharp rally in crude oil and energy shares lifted U.S. stocks on Friday, but indexes registered losses for the week. U.S. crude oil settled more than 6 percent higher after data showed lower U.S. stockpiles, driving gains of 2 percent in the S&P energy sector. For the week, the Dow and S&P 500 lost 1.2 percent, while the Nasdaq fell 1.3 percent. S&P 500's weekly loss was its biggest since early February. First-quarter earnings begin in earnest next week with reports from Alcoa (NYSE:AA) and four of the big banks. Analysts are projecting a third straight quarterly decline in earnings at S&P 500 companies, with a 7.6-percent year-over-year decline in profits forecast, according to Thomson Reuters data.
Pivot: 2020 Support: 2020 1970 1950 Resistance: 2080 2100 2130 Scenario 1: long positions above 2020.00 with targets @ 2080.00 & 2100.00 in extension. Scenario 2: below 2020.00 look for further downside with 1970.00 & 1950.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI has struck against a major resistance around 70% and is reversing down. But prices are challenging the 20-day simple moving average.