All-night talks between the Greek government and euro zone leaders have resulted in a reform-for-aid deal for the debt-stricken country. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras yielded to their austerity demands after almost 17 hours of talks at a euro-area summit in Brussels ending on Monday. At around 8 a.m. London time, President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, published that discussions had "unanimously reach agreement." Leaders have agreed in principle that they are ready to start negotiations on an ESM program which in other words means continued support for Greece. There are strict conditions to be met. The approval of several national parliaments including the Greek parliament is now needed for negotiations for an ESM program to formally begin. As part of the agreement creditors want more reforms and tax measures from Greece, they want Greece to create 50 billion euro privatization fund, and Athens to pass some reforms by Wednesday. Monday's deal requires Greece to give full access to bailout monitors on the ground in Athens, and agree to all relevant legislation in advance with creditors. Tspiras was elected on promises to reverse austerity and end such intrusive monitoring, and the agreement will raise questions about whether he can continue in his post. Following the news, all major European indices surged with the DAX moving from negative territory to trading 0,5 percent higher, the euro however, approached the 1,12 level following the news and then fell sharply 0.6 percent lower for the day at 1,1050 at 8 a.m. GMT time.
Earlier, the euro traded lower in the Asian session on Monday as Greece and international creditors seemed divided and emergency talks are being stalled as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rejected creditor demands for the creation of an independent fund to sell state assets and sought to minimize the role of the International Monetary Fund in a third bailout. The weekend talks, which were supposed to be the final deadline for a deal, on late Sunday were divided on the way and Greece may get €7 billion in "bridge" finance before July 20 to enable it to make payments and keep the banking system running.
Pivot: 1.11
Support: 1.11; 1.105; 1.099
Resistance: 1.12; 1.126; 1.1315
Scenario 1: Long positions above 1.11 with targets @ 1.12 & 1.126 in extension.
Scenario 2: Below 1.11 look for further downside with 1.105 & 1.099 as targets.
Comment: A support base at 1.11 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
OIL
Oil prices fell early on Monday as Iran and six world powers were close to nailing down a nuclear deal. The possibility of Iran reaching to deal that would ease sanctions and lead to higher crude exports at a time when demand is so weak and with China's equity markets dropping and the ongoing Greek debt crisis, several analysts say that crude oil prices could collapse further. In Europe, the Greek debt crisis continued as political leaders argued late into the night at an emergency summit, so far without result. With oversupply ongoing and abundant economic risk, the International Energy Agency and several banks said they had lowered their oil price forecasts.
Pivot: 53.4
Support: 51.4; 50.55; 50
Resistance: 53.4; 53.85; 54.7
Scenario 1: Short positions below 53.4 with targets @ 51.4 & 50.55 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 53.4 look for further upside with 53.85 & 54.7 as targets.
Comment: As long as 53.4 is resistance, likely decline to 51.4.
DOW JONES
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with major indexes ending up more than 1 percent on hopes Greece would be able to secure fresh funding at the Sunday meeting, which would allow it to avoid bankruptcy and to remain in the euro zone. Some of the gains were pared in afternoon trading after Janet Yellen reaffirmed that the Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates at some point this year. However, despite talks between Greece and Eurozone leaders failing to reach to a deal, the main stock index futures continue to rise early on Monday, as it was announced that the summit was reconvening to discuss a "compromise proposal. A four-page document of draft proposals put forward by Eurozone finance ministers.
Pivot: 18350
Support: 17410; 17200; 17040
Resistance: 18350; 18650; 18900
Scenario 1: Short positions below 18350 with targets @ 17410 & 17200 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 18350 look for further upside with 18650 & 18900 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline. The index broke below a rising trend line.
APPLE
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) managed to stop a five day losing streak on Friday, adding 2.7%. Since the beginning of the month, shares have dropped 1.7%, hit by a market selloff as worries over instability in Chinese markets and uncertainty in Greece. The share received strong pressures by China's recent stock crisis and by a UBS note on Thursday pointing out that China has provided over half of Apple's recent growth in revenue.
Pivot: 134.4
Support: 118.5; 113; 103.7
Resistance: 134.4; 145.3; 152.5
Scenario 1: Short positions below 134.4 with targets @ 118.5 & 113 in extension.
Scenario 2: Above 134.4 look for further upside with 145.3 & 152.5 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside. The daily RSI is capped by a declining trend line.