Hurricane Energy (LON:HUR) has completed drilling of the 205/26b-A well (Lincoln). Log data and gas chromatography indicates a significant hydrocarbon column of at least 660m TVD, comparable to that of Lancaster. Oil down to (ODT) was observed at c 2,300m TVDSS, 520m below structural closure and 168m below the ODT in the 1995 Arco 205/21-1 well. In our last published RENAV, we included 8p/share of risked value for Lincoln, assuming a commercial chance of success (CCOS) of 15%. De-risking Lincoln (to 60% CCOS) but leaving mid-case volume at 250mmbbl (Hurricane management expects upside to this given the deeper ODT), our Lincoln risked valuation rises to c 33p/share and group RENAV to 101p/share from 75p/share (+35%).
Pre-drill volumes for Lincoln were constrained by the 2,135m TVDSS ODT in the 1995 Arco well at the flank of the structure. Recent logs suggest a deeper ODT of 2,303m TVDSS, which management believes suggests upside to a pre-drill, mid-case volume estimate of 250mmbbl. Management estimates of combined Lancaster and Lincoln volumes are now well in excess of gross 500mmbbl (mid-case). STOIIP and recovery factor assumptions driving estimates of recoverable oil are to be confirmed by independent CPR in H117.
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