The fortunes of the main developed countries differ widely, with diverse growth prospects. A priori, those in the most favourable positions figure in quadrant 1 (the upper right square).
In the United States, the UK and France, productivity gains (represented by the y axis) are not totally cancelled out, while growth of the active population (x axis) remains positive according to projections by the International Labour Office (ILO). Germany, Japan and Spain, in contrast, are hit by the accelerated aging of their populations.
Isolated in quadrant 3 (bottom left square), Italy accumulates handicaps, with declining demographics and labour productivity. Italy’s growth potential, which is estimated at zero if not in negative territory, ranks as the lowest in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), alongside Greece.
by Jean-Luc PROUTAT