Great French Debate
The first great French debate has the polls showing Macaron performing well as the markets were quick to react. The euro has recovered all its pre-debate risk off, bouncing pointedly higher with S&P equities in tow as risk appetite remains sturdy, post-debate.
The French debate poll by Elsie showed that most voters (29%) said Macron was the winner of the debate. Fillon and Le Pen were even with 11% of the votes, while Melenchon earned 20%.
Having held above the 1.0700 support, the euro continues to reassert itself post-debate. With EUR/USD traders gunning higher on the apparent pivot in ECB policy, in particular with the uber-doves like Visco flying to the hawks’ nest, it would suggest a test of the critical 1.0800 is in the offing with the market firmly in buy the dip mode.
All in all, the minutes were upbeat despite some concerns over labour market slack, but the positive assessments of global affairs should balance out those issues. The problem for the Aussie is that the market is long and there was not enough meat in the minutes for dealers to add to their positions. Overall, I suspect the long Aussie players will be looking for a continuation of the broader dollar weakness to cement their view and push above this huge .7750-75 resistance barriers.
Yen
Although USD/JPY traded heavy early in the session, resilient risk appetite has underpinned today’s movements. The near-term outlook comes down to how aggressive the continuation of USD unwinds transpires. At this stage, the French debate has sidestepped the latest pressure point and I suspect the USD/JPY bulls took a sigh of relief while the near-term dollar bears quickly gave up the game. Back to the range, it seems, while the market pivots to the trade narrative and how near-term U.S. administration policies will impact the global supply chain.