- ECB’s Knot (hawk) noted that for July I think it is a necessity, for anything beyond July it would at most be a possibility but by no means a certainty
- Canadian headline CPI was 2.8%, versus 3% expected, which should allow the BOC to keep rates on hold
- Global crypto market cap hovers around $1.2 trillion
Oil
Crude prices are steadying here on expectations that the oil market will remain tight as Russian shipments drop and as China prepares to provide more support to households. With Russian flows falling to a six-month low, expectations are growing that OPEC+ will keep this market tight throughout the summer. China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) is pressuring financial companies to improve support on household spending. Further speculation of a Q3 RRR cut from China should also keep the oil market supported as that should imply China’s economy will only get better, which should be good news for the crude demand outlook going forward.
Brent crude looks like it wants to find a home above the $80 level and that shouldn’t be too hard as long as the crude demand outlook doesn’t get blindsided.
Gold
Gold traders have their rally caps on after ECB’s Knot signaled they could be ready to pause in September and after Canadian inflation dropped to the BOC’s control range for the first time since March 2021. Global bond yields are falling and that is good news for bullion investors.
So far this earnings season, the big banks have outlined a vision that includes slowing growth in the US, which should allow the Fed to be one and done with rate hikes. Unless core inflation proves to be a lot stickier than Wall Street fears, the peak in global rates should be in place by the fall. Gold might struggle to make a run at the $2000 level, but that could change if bond yields continue to come down and the Fed signals they are likely done hiking next week after delivering one last quarter-point rate rise.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BitfinexUSD) continues to waver, tentatively falling below the $30,000 level, which is just the June low. As the cryptoverse awaits a pivotal Bitcoin ETF update, flows remain dormant. The institutional money is not buying right now and retail is struggling with the current macro backdrop. Bitcoin seems poised to be stuck in a range, which could warrant a slightly further dip towards the $29,500 level.