- LONG TERM TREND: BEARISH
- INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND: NEUTRAL
- SHORT TERM TREND: NEUTRAL/BEARISH
- VERY SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH
After hitting a high of 1223 on Easter Monday and thereby failing to breach the key 1220-1225 resistance level, gold has retraced back to test the 50% Fib retracement level at 1184. The price is currently below 1200 and all of the major Moving Averages on the Daily and Weekly charts, entrenched in a short-term down trend channel.
A break of 1178-1180 would suggest a return to the key support area at 1142 with a strong possibility of a sharp decline towards 1000. The bulls desperately need to claim 1225 to arrest the decline and build a case for a rally back toward 1300. We will not consider a change in the intermediate trend unless or until we see a decisive break of the January high at 1308.
Equities are again near all-time highs and the dollar remains near 100 after a sharp correction, whilst oil is attempting to rally back above $50 a barrel.
Support can be found at 1184, 1178-1182, 1174, 1160, 1142-1145, 1131, 1124, 1100, 1085, 1045, 1000, 950, 867 and 806. A break of 1131 would be very bearish for gold and suggest a return to 1000-1050 in the first instance.
Resistance can be found at 1194, 1200, 1207-1209, 1220-1223, 1252-1256, 1274, 1285, 1297 and 1305-1308. After a promising move higher following the break of 1180 last year, gold has failed to break the intermediate down trend and is now heading lower again, with the 2014 lows in sight.