Since its peak in 2011, gold remains in a downtrend, creating a series of lower high and lower lows.
Gold’s rally in 2016 is attempting to break this 5-year falling trend as it tries to break a series of lower highs.
Over the past 6 months, gold may have been creating a rising wedge pattern, which two-thirds of the time suggests lower prices ahead.
If history repeats itself, that support has to be taken out at (1) above. If it does give way, selling pressure could increase.
As for the USD, its pattern looks almost the polar opposite (bullish falling-wedge resistance test in play).
If gold does break above triple resistance, it would send a message that the multi-year downtrend is changing.
What happens at (1) -- support break or resistance breakout -- should also telegraph an important message for gold over the next few months.