For the past two weeks the heretofore inseparable tracts of ES and oil have seriously diverged.
Since Apr. 22, ES is up about 1% while oil has declined by nearly 14%.
ES remains in a well-defined uptrend, while oil has carved out a meaningful, near-term downtrend after its Feb.-Mar. advance from $26 to $42.
Of course, from a much longer-term perspective, ES is in a multi-year bull trend, which is recovering from a 14% Jan.-Feb. correction while oil remains in the grasp of a vicious bear market, down from from $110 to $26 and may have merely ended a "minor" recovery-rally period.
As long as any weakness in ES holds above 2040, the bulls will keep directional control. Oil must remain north of $36.00 to avert downside continuation toward $34.
That said, we have to be mindful of a directional re-coupling between weak oil and a roll-over in ES.