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GBP/USD: Subdued Ahead Of UK Election Results

Published 05/07/2015, 06:14 AM
Updated 07/07/2019, 08:10 AM


There is expected to be much volatility today and tomorrow as results from the general election start to filter through.


Based on recent polls the election will probably result in a hung parliament with neither of the major parties winning a clear majority.


It is then probable that Labour and the SNP will do a deal and create a new coalition government. Labour is more pro-E.U than the other main party so this will probably be positive for sterling.


Although there may be qualms about labour's record on the economy I still see sterling strength as the most likely outcome initially as the threat of a referendum on E.U membership recedes.


Regardless of the outcome, the technical picture is undecided, with a slight bias to the upside: on the one hand we remain within an up-trend from the April 13 lows, although the recent pull-back has been strong and led to the formation of a v.short-term down-trend.


It could go either way from here, but a break above the 1.5290 highs would break the mini-correction and mark a resumption higher to major resistance at 1.5380.


Alternatively a break below the May 4 lows at 1.5089 could see an extension lower to support at 1.4950.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

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