GBP/USD: Long At 1.3370
- The Office for National Statistics left its earlier estimate of British first-quarter growth unchanged, in a picture that shows the economy heavily reliant on household spending and services for growth, while foreign trade, investment and manufacturing all slowed the expansion. Overall, the economy grew by 0.4% in the first three months of 2016, in line with forecasts, and was 2.0% larger than a year earlier.
- But these growth figures are likely to be viewed as moot by financial markets after Britain's decision to leave the EU, which sent the currency tumbling and raised fears the country will fall into recession or suffer years of weak growth. Confidence among British consumers fell sharply in the days after the country decided to leave the European Union, according to a survey published on Thursday which gave a first glimpse of how the shock referendum result has affected households. The YouGov/CEBR Consumer Confidence Index, which measures people's economic sentiment on a daily basis, slumped to its lowest level since May 2013, when Britain's economy was just starting to emerge from its post-financial crisis sluggishness.
- Sterling climbed for a third day on Thursday. Investors were drawing some reassurance from the fact that British politicians were not rushing to trigger the Article 50 mechanism for a state to leave the EU, despite European leaders telling Britain to act quickly after last week's referendum.
- Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will be watched for clues on interest rates, when he gives policy guidance at 15:00 GMT - his second speech since the Brexit vote. Some investors expect Carney to announce monetary easing in the coming months, but we do not think so. This together with better market sentiment made us get long on GBP/USD at 1.3370 today. We went EUR/GBP short at 0.8285 and are looking to buy GBP/JPY at 137.20.
USD/JPY: Japanese Industrial Output Hits 3-Year Low
- Japan's industrial output slid in May at the fastest rate in three months to its lowest level since June 2013, highlighting concerns about falling exports and weak consumer spending. May's 2.3% fall in industrial output considerably exceeded the median estimate for a 0.1% decline. Exports fell at the fastest pace in four months in May on supply chain disruptions from an earthquake and slow growth in emerging markets, data earlier this month showed.
- The Bank of Japan's closely-watched tankan business sentiment survey due on Friday is forecast to show confidence fell to the lowest in three years in April-June, even though the poll was taken before Britain voted on June 23 to leave the European Union.
- The JPY reacted only slightly to weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data. When the world is facing a major financial or political disruption, investors look for a relatively safe place for their money – and despite the dreadful economic backdrop, Japan and yen assets are seen as one of the safe havens, a place to hide with little perceived downside risk. The safe-haven phenomenon is a huge headache for the Japanese government with few easy options to curb a rise that badly hurts the nation’s exporters and could tip the economy back into recession.
- We expect weaker JPY in the near term and have raised our bid to 102.50.
USD/CAD: Loonie Gains As Stocks And Oil Rally
- The risk-sensitive Canadian dollar gained against the USD today as global financial markets stabilized for a second straight day following volatility triggered by Britain's vote to leave the European Union.
- Oil rose as traders moved money back into markets hit by the initial shock of Brexit, while a potential oil workers' strike in Norway and a crisis in Venezuela's oil sector also provided support.
- Expectations for the next Bank of Canada interest rate hike have been pushed back to the first quarter of 2018. Canada's economy, pushed into a brief recession last year by weaker oil prices, was already struggling to gain momentum before the Brexit vote. Second-quarter growth is expected to be flat at best due partly to recent wildfires in Alberta. Bank of Canada head Stephen Poloz noted in a speech earlier this month that the outcome of the referendum posed a risk at the global level that could result in a shift in the central bank's view.
- We stay short in the short- and long-term part of our portfolio. An important resistance level is 100-dma at 1.3069. Breaking below the 7-day exponential moving average at 1.2921 should open the way to stronger drop in the USD/CAD.
FOREX - MAJOR PAIRS: 
FOREX - MAJOR CROSSES: 
It is usually reasonable to divide your portfolio into two parts: the core investment part and the satellite speculative part. The core part is the one you would want to make profit with in the long term thanks to the long-term trend in price changes. Such an approach is a clear investment as you are bound to keep your position opened for a considerable amount of time in order to realize the profit. The speculative part is quite the contrary. You would open a speculative position with short-term gains in your mind and with the awareness that even though potentially more profitable than investments, speculation is also way more risky. In typical circumstances investments should account for 60-90% of your portfolio, the rest being speculative positions. This way, you may enjoy a possibly higher rate of return than in the case of putting all of your money into investment positions and at the same time you may not have to be afraid of severe losses in the short-term.
How to read these tables?
1. Support/Resistance - three closest important support/resistance levels
2. Position/Trading Idea:
BUY/SELL - It means we are looking to open LONG/SHORT position at the Entry Price. If the order is filled we will set the suggested Target and Stop-loss level.
LONG/SHORT - It means we have already taken this position at the Entry Price and expect the rate to go up/down to the Target level.
3. Stop-Loss/Profit Locked In - Sometimes we move the stop-loss level above (in case of LONG) or below (in case of SHORT) the Entry price. This means that we have locked in profit on this position.
4. Risk Factor - green "*" means high level of confidence (low level of uncertainty), grey "**" means medium level of confidence, red "***" means low level of confidence (high level of uncertainty)
5. Position Size (forex)- position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in mini lots. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size). You should always round the result down. For example, if the result was 2.671, your position size should be 2 mini lots. This would be a great tool for your risk management!
Position size (precious metals) - position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in units. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size).
6. Profit/Loss on recently closed position (forex) - is the amount of pips we have earned/lost on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.
Profit/Loss on recently closed position (precious metals) - is profit/loss we have earned/lost per unit on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.
Source: Growth Aces - Forex And Precious Metals Trading Signals