FXA - Gold, Strategy for Getting Short.

  Note that the upmove lasted about 3 years but the market has been ranging about 5 months (so far), has not been long enough "time-wise", and continues to argue continued wide consolidating ahead (at least another 6-9 months).  In general for the longer term, would be looking to fade extremes, key longer term support/resistance areas.  Currently, the market is down from the Feb 28th high at $1793 and with at least some further downside favored and potentially much more (see shorter term below), would maintain the longer term bearish bias that was put in place on Oct 13th at $1668.  Note that even a break above this recent high would not abort the view of continued wide ranging, but would raise potential for gains back toward the Sept/top of the range at $1924.  Key longer term support is seen at the bullish trendline from Oct 2008 (currently at $1570/80), the base of the large range at $1520/30 and $1445/55 (38% retracement from the $681.00 low).

Nearer term, the market is sharply lower from the Feb 28th high at $1793, and test of the ceiling of the bearish channel since Sept.  With the market still overbought after the sharp gains since Dec, at least some further downside is favored.  Note too the bearish divergence/sell mode on the daily macd (see bottom of daily chart/2nd chart below), adds to the view.  But from a position standpoint, the market is consolidating from yesterday's spike low at $1688 (38% from the $1524) and with scope for at least another few days/ week of correcting higher, it's not seen as the time to just hit bids. Instead for now, would wait for higher levels toward $1739/42 (50% from $1793) to sell (higher entry, lower risk), and then initially using a wide stop on a close above the bearish trendline from Sept (cur at $1791). Note too there is also the risk that the market never reaches that sell target, so would also short on a close below the bullish trendline from the Dec low (currently at $1692/95, would increase the likelihood of further lows).  In that case, would then use a close back above the trendline as a sign to stop (always risk of a false break).