This week the scorecard recommends buying the NZD, SEK and NOK while selling the EUR, AUD and CHF.
Last week's sell-off in the NZD seems overdone according to the model, and thus the Scorecard recommends buying the NZD this week. Both the input factors from interest rates and option market positioning also have a constructive view on NZD, while the technical input factor, on the other hand favour being short the NZD. Moreover, the long basket this week also includes the two Scandi currencies, the NOK and SEK. Especially last week's sell-off in SEK supports the Swedish Krona this week, while most input factors have a constructive view on the NOK.
For the fourth consecutive week, the Scorecards recommends selling the EUR again this week as all input factors have a negative view on the currency. Especially the interest rate input factor has a negative view on the EUR following the past weeks decline in 1Y EUR swap rates.
Last week's signals resulted in a 0.3% loss. Especially the long the SEK position was expensive. Year to date, the Scorecard model has generated a total profit of 4.0%.
Next scorecard signals will be sent out on 9 June.
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