EUR/USD Daily Analysis: Markets have been moving sideways for the past few days and we have been trying to be patient, waiting for a high-probability trend to emerge. Technically the long-term downtrend remains firmly intact beneath it’s 10-day moving average around 1.17, however, STRONG fundamental risk is ahead with the ECB’s rate decision and policy release starting at 12:45 UTC tomorrow (Thursday).
If there were no event risk, or at least a normal amount of event risk we would be looking to get short on rallies under 1.17, but given the SNB shockwaves that are still reverberating through the markets we expect an elevated level of risk tomorrow during the ECB releases, though our primary technical forecast is for more euro losses as long as 1.17 holds above. We also have the Greek elections this weekend to watch out for (more on that tomorrow).
Our Preferred Trades*: Flat until the ECB events tomorrow, and then we will release the Thursday/Friday signal and analysis. If the fundamental situation remains unchanged we will most likely be looking to get short.
Long-term Trend Analysis Chart
Yesterday’s EUR/USD SwingPRO Signal Result: No trades to report on.
Today’s SwingPRO Signal: Flat.
*CandlePRO: CandlePRO can be used in conjunction with our daily analysis and “our preferred trades.” For example, if we prefer “going short” or “selling a rally” then we would look for bearish candlestick signals after a rally or near resistance levels. Alternative if we prefer “going long” or “buying a dip” then we would look for bullish candlestick signals on price drops or near support levels.
Today’s Important News Events:
