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Forex Market Forecast: April 7, 2014

ByJay Hawk
Published 04/07/2014, 02:48 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of April 7th – April 11th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, April 7th

  • All Day CNY Bank Holiday
  • 2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (last 5.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (last 433.5B expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:15am CHF CPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 11:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence survey (52 expected, > good for currency)

Tuesday, April 8th

  • 12:50am JPY Current Account (-0.04T expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence (last 7 expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 8:15am CHF Retail Sales (0.9% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD Building Permits (-2.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.8% expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings (3.99M expected, > good for currency)
  • 6:30pm USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 7:45pm USD FOMC Member Plosser speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
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Wednesday, April 9th

  • 1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey (last -0.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:30am AUD Home Loans (1.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:00am EUR German Trade Balance (18.0B expected, > good for currency)
  • 10th-14th CNY New Loans (1,000B expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Trade Balance (-9.3B expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last-2.4M expected, > good for currency)
  • 6:01pm USD 10-year Bond Auction (last average yield 2.73 percent, with a 2.9 bid to cover ratio expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index (last 56.2 expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, April 10th

  • 12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders (-3.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations (last 2.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:30am AUD Employment Change (7.3K expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (6.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative CNY Trade Balance (-0.9B expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:45am EUR French Industrial Production (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility (375B expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate Decision (unchanged at 0.50% expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD NHPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (314K expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Import Prices (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • All Day ALL First Day of G20 Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 7:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance (-76.5B expected, > good for currency)
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Friday, April 11th

  • 12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 2:30am CNY CPI (2.5% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:30am CNY PPI (-2.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD PPI (0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Core PPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (81.2 expected, > good for currency)
  • All Day ALL Second Day of G20 Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)

Levels To Watch:


EUR/USD: Mildly Higher

Initial: 1.3748, 1.3758/72, 1.3795/98, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/47, 1.3875, 1.3892, 1.3914, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.

Above: 1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:
Initial: 1.3731/39, 1.3714/16, 1.3703/10, 1.3685/99, 1.3682/86, 1.3664, 1.3642/50, 1.3621/31, 1.3602/14, 1.3597, 1.3546/81, 1.3538, 1.3507/24, 1.3489/1.3504, 1.3476/82, 1.3451, 1.3441, 1.3433/34, 1.3416, 1.3398/1.3409, 1.3376/89, 1.3344/53, 1.3318/24, 1.3305/08, 1.3294/99, 1.3222/42, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3172/77, 1.3161/65, 1.3126, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3077, 1.3059/66 and 1.3047.

Below: 1.3000, 1.2904/98, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55. 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.2041 and 1.1938.



USD/JPY: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 103.30, 103.37/43, 103.73/75, 103.82, 103.91, 104.07/19, 104.36, 104.63, 104.83/91, 105.18, 105.33 and 105.41/43.

Above: 107.18, 108.42, 110.39/47 and 111.60.

Support:
Initial: 102.93/97, 102.75/82, 102.57/69, 102.49/52, 102.14, 101.91/102.01, 101.83, 101.62/71, 101.52/56, 101.43, 101.19/27, 101.13/14, 100.85/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22, 100.00, 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05, 96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, and 95.44.

Below: 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

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GBP/USD: Higher

Resistance: Initial: 1.6624, 1.6640/50, 1.6665/67, 1.6683, 1.6717/24, 1.6745, 1.6755, 1.6768, 1.6785, 1.6802, 1.6822 and 1.6874.
Above: 1.6909, and 1.7042/47.

Support:
Initial: 1.6611/17, 1.6592, 1.6576/86, 1.6548, 1.6516, 1.6484, 1.6458/65, 1.6441, 1.6417/18,1.6400, 1.6394, 1.6380/83, 1.6376, 1.6348, 1.6336, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6290, 1.6251/62, 1.6239/46, 1.6222/24, 1.6215/16, 1.6195/98, 1.6177, 1.6155, 1.6130/36, 1.6109/21, 1.6083/96, 1.6071/77, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/08, 1.5975/91, 1.5956/61, 1.5948, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/93, 1.5874/77, 1.5853, 1.5844, 1.5825, 1.5803/07, 1.5775/81, 1.5750, 1.5714/17, 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/56, 1.5601/15, 1.5591, 1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and 1.5514/16.

Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293, 1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75, 1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.


AUD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9303/06, 0.9214/23, 0.9232, 0.9268, 0.9279/86, 0.9291/94, 0.9304, 0.9317/25, 0.9343/64, 0.9383/86, 0.9391/98, 0.9404, 0.9420, 0.9428/33, 0.9447, 0.9457 and 0.9483/86.

Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.

Support:
Initial: 0.9204, 0.9179/89, 0.9162/67, 0.9147, 0.9127/37, 0.9110/19, 0.9102, 0. 9072/79, 0.9061/66, 0.9054/57, 0.9042/48, 0.9041, 0.9035, 0.8994/0.9008, 0.8981/87, 0.8967/69, 0.8951/57, 0.8923/36, 0.8918, 0.8906/12, 0.8887/92, 0.8869, 0.8857/61, 0.8842/47, 0.8819/25, 0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.

Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.

USD/CAD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0982/90, 1.1000/1.1001, 1.1039/53, 1.1069/70, 1.1089, 1.1099, 1.1102/09, 1.1116/32, 1.1141, 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1172/73, 1.1194, 1.1223 and 1.1277.

Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.

Support:
Initial: 1.0962/66, 1.0954/56, 1.0939/45, 1.0928, 1.0909, 1.0852, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/07, 1.0676/79, 1.0668/76, 1.0659/60, 1.0646/56, 1.0621/27, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, 1.0506, 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and 1.0012.

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Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8603/05, 0.8638/41, 0.8671/74 and 0.8695/0.8700.
Above: 0.8764 and 0.8840.

Support:
Initial: 0.8584, 0.8571, 0.8561, 0.8542, 0.8532, 0.8523, 0.8504/12, 0.8499, 0.8487/89, 0.8472/79, 0.8453/59, 0.8423/47, 0.8413, 0.8376/0.8406, 0.8359/66, 0.8322/53, 0.8302/16, 0.8291/95, 0.8285/87, 0.8280, 0.8271, 0.8263, 0.8250/55, 0.8221/41, 0.8204/14, 0.8195/97, 0.8186, 0.8171, 0.8160/63, 0.8147/53, 0.8114/37, 0.8100/09, 0.8078/82, 0.8049/60, 0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.7967, 0.7932, 0.7903/06, 0.7888, 0.7872, 0.7856/57, 0.7838/46, 0.7829, 0.7819 and 0.7804.

Below: 0.7795, 0.7783, 0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.

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