Forex Forecasts: September 8 – September 12, 2014

Key Fundamental Forex Events and Forecasts for the Coming Week

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of September 8th – September 12th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, September 8^th

• 12:50am JPY Current Account (0.18T expected, > good for currency)
• 12:50am JPY Final GDP (-1.8% expected, > good for currency)
• All Day CNY Bank Holiday
• 2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
• Tentative CNY Trade Balance (40.8B expected)
• 7:00am EUR German Trade Balance (17.3B expected, > good for currency)
• 8:00am GBP Halifax HPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
• 8:15am CHF CPI (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
• 8:15am CHF Retail Sales (3.7% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Building Permits (-4.2% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:45pm USD Treasury Secretary Lew speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Tuesday, September 9^th

• 12:50am JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
• 12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
• 2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence (last 11 expected, > good for currency)
• 2:30am AUD Home Loans (1.1% expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP BOE Governor Carney speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Trade Balance (-9.1B expected, > good for currency)
• 1:15pm CAD Housing Starts (197K expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.6% expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings (4.72M expected, > good for currency)

Wednesday, September 10^th

• 12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders (4.1% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (last 3.8% expected, > good for currency)
• 7:45am EUR French Industrial Production (-0.4% expected, > good for currency)
• 10th-14th CNY New Loans (710B expected)
• Tentative EUR German 10-year Bond Auction (last average yield 1.08 percent, with a 1.6 bid to cover ratio expected, < yield and > ratio good for currency)
• 2:45pm GBP Inflation Report Hearings (hawkish = good for currency)
• 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last -0.9M expected, > good for currency)
• 6:01pm USD 10-year Bond Auction (last average yield 2.44 percent, with a 2.8 bid to cover ratio expected, < yield and > ratio good for currency)
• 10:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate Decision (unchanged at 3.50% expected, > good for currency)
• 10:00am NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• 10:00am NZD RBNZ Press Conference (hawkish = good for currency)
• 10:00am NZD RBNZ Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)

Thursday, September 11^th

• 12:50am JPY BSI Manufacturing Index (-10.3 expected, > good for currency)
• 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations (3.1% expected, > good for currency)
• 2:30am AUD Employment Change (15.2K expected, > good for currency)
• 2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (6.3% expected, < good for currency)
• 2:30am CNY CPI (2.2% expected)
• 2:30am CNY PPI (-1.1% expected)
• 9:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin (hawkish = good for currency)
• Tentative EUR Spanish HPI (-0.5% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD NHPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (306K expected, < good for currency)
• 11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index (last 53.0 expected, > good for currency)

Friday, September 12^th

• 7:05am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
• 10:00am EUR Industrial Production (0.6% expected, > good for currency)
• 10:00am All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Core Retail Sales (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Retail Sales (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Import Prices (-0.8% expected, > good for currency)
• 2:55pm USD Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (83.2 expected, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD Business Inventories (0.5% expected, > good for currency)

Saturday, September 13^th

• 6:30am CNY Industrial Production (8.8% expected)
• 6:30am CNY Fixed Asset Investment (16.9% expected)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.2987/98, 1.3000, 1.3003, 1.3047, 1.3059/66, 1.3077, 1.3093/1.3106/09, 1.3126, 1.3130, 1.3152/65, 1.3172/77, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3220/42, 1.3294/99, 1.3305/08, 1.3318/24, 1.3332/35, 1.3344/53, 1.3366, 1.3376/89, 1.3398/1.3416, 1.3432/44, 1.3451, 1.3473/82, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3538, 1.3546/88, 1.3597, 1.3602/15, 1.3621/31, 1.3639/50, 1.3663/76, 1.3682/86, 1.3685/1.3710, 1.3714/16, 1.3731/39, 1.3748, 1.3758/74, 1.3784/98, 1.3807, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/54, 1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.

Above:1.4695 and 1.4939.

Support:

Initial: 1.2919 and 1.2904.

Below:1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.204132 and 1.1938.

USD/JPY: Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 105.18, 105.30/33, 105.41/43 and 105.70.

Above: 107.18, 108.42, 110.39/47 and 111.60.

Support:

Initial: 104.83/91, 104.63, 104.36, 104.07/19, 103.91, 103.82, 103.73/75, 103.37/43, 103.30, 102.92/103.08, 102.57/82, 102.49/52, 102.33/40, 102.26, 102.13/14, 101.90/102.04, 101.60/83, 101.50/56, 101.42/43, 101.30/32, 101.08/27, 100.82/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22, 100.00, 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05,96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, and 95.44.

Below: 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBP/USD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 1.6336, 1.6348, 1.6376, 1.6380/83, 1.6394, 1.6400, 1.6417/18, 1.6441/44, 1.6458/65, 1.6484, 1.6496, 1.6516, 1.6534, 1.6548, 1.6576/86, 1.6592, 1.6611/17, 1.6624, 1.6640/56, 1.6665/67, 1.6683, 1.6692/98, 1.6716/24, 1.6730/37, 1.6745, 1.6755, 1.6765/68, 1.6777, 1.6785, 1.6800/02, 1.6812, 1.6819/22, 1.6831/44, 1.6874/87, 1.6902/09, 1.6919/20, 1.6951, 1.6960, 1.6995, 1.7000, 1.7010, 1.7035, 1.7042/51, 1.7058/62, 1.7084, 1.7094/99, 1.7107, 1.7130, 1.7167, 1.7176/78 and 1.7190.

Above: 1.7440.

Support:

Initial: 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6290, 1.6280/86, 1.6251/62, 1.6239/46, 1.6222/24, 1.6215/16, 1.6195/98, 1.6177, 1.6155, 1.6130/36, 1.6109/21, 1.6083/96, 1.6071/77, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/08, 1.5975/91, 1.5956/61, 1.5948, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/93, 1.5874/77, 1.5853, 1.5844, 1.5825, 1.5803/07, 1.5775/81, 1.5750, 1.5714/17, 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/56, 1.5601/15, 1.5591, 1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and 1.5514/16.

Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293, 1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75, 1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUD/USD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 0.9386/0.9410, 0.9420/24, 0.9428/33, 0.9440/47, 0.9455/57, 0.9469 and 0.9483/86.

Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.

Support:

Initial: 0.9359, 0.9343/53, 0.9328/34, 0.9311, 0.9304, 0.9286/94, 0.9232/74, 0.9214/26, 0.9200/08, 0.9179/89, 0.9162/67, 0.9147, 0.9127/37, 0.9110/19, 0.9102, 0. 9072/79, 0.9061/66, 0.9054/57, 0.9042/48, 0.9041, 0.9035, 0.8994/0.9008, 0.8981/87, 0.8967/69, 0.8951/57, 0.8923/36, 0.8918, 0.8906/12, 0.8887/92, 0.8869, 0.8857/61, 0.8842/47, 0.8819/25, 0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.

Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.

USD/CAD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:

Initial: 1.0894, 1.0903/09, 1.0915, 1.0925/28, 1.0934, 1.0941/45, 1.0954/59, 1.0962/66, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.1032/53, 1.1069/70, 1.1089, 1.1099, 1.1102/09, 1.1116/32, 1.1141, 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1172/73, 1.1194, 1.1223 and 1.1277.

Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.

Support:

Initial: 1. 1.0873/86, 0852/59, 1.0849, 1.0839/40, 1.0820/27, 1.0813, 1.0793/96, 1.0742/85, 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/09, 1.0693, 1.0668/79, 1.0646/60, 1.0619/29, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, 1.0506, 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and 1.0012.

Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:

Initial: 0.8322/66, 0.8376, 0.8389, 0.8406, 0.8413, 0.8421/59, 0.8472/79, 0.8487/89, 0.8499, 0.8504/18, 0.8523/37, 0.8542/53, 0.8560/61, 0.8571/78, 0.8584/90, 0.8602/05, 0.8633/41, 0.8647/53, 0.8660/67, 0.8671/74, 0.8693/0.8700, 0.8712/18, 0.8734, 0.8744, 0.8764/77, 0.8789, 0.8792, 0.8821 and 0.8834.

Above: 0.8840.

Support:

Initial: 0.8302/16, 0.8291/95, 0.8285/87, 0.8280, 0.8268/71, 0.8263, 0.8250/55, 0.8221/41, 0.8204/14, 0.8195/97, 0.8186, 0.8171, 0.8160/63, 0.8147/53, 0.8114/37, 0.8100/09, 0.8078/82, 0.8049/60, 0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.7967, 0.7932, 0.7903/06, 0.7888, 0.7872, 0.7856/57, 0.7838/46, 0.7829, 0.7819 and 0.7804.

Below: 0.7795, 0.7783, 0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.

Risk Statement: Trading Foreign Exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial deposit. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you.