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Forex Forecast: June 23 - June 27, 2014

Published 06/24/2014, 01:34 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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AUD/USD
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USD/CAD
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NZD/USD
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The following table lists the key economic data and other events that are due out during the week of June 23rd – June 27th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, June 23rd

  • 2:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.7 expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:00am JPY BOJ Governor Kuroda speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 8:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI (49.6 expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI (49.5 expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI (52.7 expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI (55.8 expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI (52.2 expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:00am EUR Flash Services PMI (53.4 expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP BOE Credit Conditions Survey (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI (56.1 expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Existing Home Sales (4.74M expected, > good for currency)

Tuesday, June 24th

  • 7:00am CHF Trade Balance (2.77B expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate survey (110.3 expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP BOE Governor Carney speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals (41.3K expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:05pm USD FOMC Member Plosser speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (11.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence survey (83.6 expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD New Home Sales (442K expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:00pm USD Treasury Secretary Lew speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Wednesday, June 25th

  • 4:00am AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 7:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate survey (8.6 expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:00am GBP Nationwide HPI (25thN June -2nd July, 0.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 11:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales (25 expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders (-0.1% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Final GDP (-1.7% expected, > good for currency)
  • 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last -0.6M expected, > good for currency)

Thursday, June 26th

  • Day 1 EUR EU Economic Summit (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 10:30am GBP BOE Governor Carney speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 10:30am GBP BOE Financial Stability Report (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (314K expected, < good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 1:30pm USD Personal Spending (0.4% expected, > good for currency)
  • 11:45pm NZD Trade Balance (250M expected, > good for currency)

Friday, June 27th

  • 12:30am JPY Household Spending (-1.9% expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI (2.8% expected, > good for currency)
  • 12:50am JPY Retail Sales (-1.9% expected, > good for currency)
  • All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI (0.2% expected, > good for currency)
  • 7:45am EUR French Consumer Spending (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer (99.8 expected, > good for currency)
  • 8:00am EUR Spanish Flash CPI (0.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30am GBP Current Account (-17.1B expected, > good for currency)
  • 9:30amB GBP Final GDP (0.8% expected, > good for currency)
  • Tentative EUR Italian 10-year Bond Auction (last average yield 3.01 percent, with a 1.3 bid to cover ratio expected, > good for currency)
  • Day 1 EUR EU Economic Summit (hawkish = good for currency)
  • 1:30pm CAD RMPI (1.3% expected, > good for currency)
  • 2:55pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (82.2 expected, > good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3597, 1.3602/15, 1.3621/31, 1.3642/50, 1.3664/76, 1.3682/86, 1.3685/99, 1.3703/10, 1.3714/16, 1.3731/39, 1.3748, 1.3758/74, 1.3784/98, 1.3807, 1.3810/20, 1.3824, 1.3832/36, 1.3845/54, 1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69, 1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.
Above:1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support:
Initial: 1.3546/85, 1.3538, 1.3489/1.3524, 1.3476/82, 1.3451, 1.3441, 1.3433/34, 1.3416, 1.3398/1.3409, 1.3376/89, 1.3344/53, 1.3318/24, 1.3305/08, 1.3294/99, 1.3222/42, 1.3187/1.3206, 1.3172/77, 1.3161/65, 1.3126, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3077, 1.3059/66 and 1.3047.
Below:1.3000, 1.2904/98, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55, 1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.204132 and 1.1938.

USD/JPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 102.13/14, 102.35/36, 102.49/52, 102.57/82, 102.93/103.01, 103.30, 103.37/43, 103.73/75, 103.82, 103.91, 104.07/19, 104.36, 104.63, 104.83/91, 105.18, 105.33 and 105.41/43.
Above: 107.18, 108.42, 110.39/47 and 111.60.
Support:
Initial: 101.91/102.04, 101.83, 101.60/73, 101.52/56, 101.42/43, 101.30/32, 101.19/27, 101.13/14, 100.82/86, 100.75, 100.60/65, 100.38/48, 100.22, 100.00, 99.94, 99.66, 99.40, 99.25, 99.13/14, 99.00, 98.84/92, 98.63/72, 98.48/53, 98.28, 98.20, 98.08, 97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05,96.81, 96.65/70, 96.55/56, 96.05, 95.79/80, and 95.44.
Below: 94.90/95.07, 94.87, 94.55, 94.19, 94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32, 89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBP/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.7042/47 and 1.7062.
Above: 1.7440.
Support:
Initial: 1.7010, 1.6995, 1.6919/20, 1.6902/09, 1.6874/81, 1.6831/44, 1.6819/22, 1.6812, 1.6802, 1.6785, 1.6777, 1.6768, 1.6755, 1.6745, 1.6730/37, 1.6716/24, 1.6692/98, 1.6683, 1.6665/67, 1.6640/56, 1.6624, 1.6611/17, 1.6592, 1.6576/86, 1.6548, 1.6516, 1.6484, 1.6458/65, 1.6441, 1.6417/18,1.6400, 1.6394, 1.6380/83, 1.6376, 1.6348, 1.6336, 1.6298/1.6309, 1.6290, 1.6251/62, 1.6239/46, 1.6222/24, 1.6215/16, 1.6195/98, 1.6177, 1.6155, 1.6130/36, 1.6109/21, 1.6083/96, 1.6071/77, 1.6051/66, 1.6001/08, 1.5975/91, 1.5956/61, 1.5948, 1.5900/27, 1.5886/93, 1.5874/77, 1.5853, 1.5844, 1.5825, 1.5803/07, 1.5775/81, 1.5750, 1.5714/17, 1.5683/92, 1.5673, 1.5624/56, 1.5601/15, 1.5591, 1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and 1.5514/16.
Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293, 1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198, 1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75, 1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985, 1.4966/67, 1.4884, 1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9391/98, 0.9404/08, 0.9420/24, 0.9428/33, 0.9447, 0.9457 and 0.9483/86.
Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27, 0.9536/42, 0.9571, 0.9585, 0.9592, 0.9620, 0.9640, 0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51, 1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.
Support:
Initial: 0.9364/86, 0.9343/53, 0.9311/28, 0.9304, 0.9291/94, 0.9279/86, 0.9268/72, 0.9251, 0.9232, 0.9214/26, 0.9201/08, 0.9179/89, 0.9162/67, 0.9147, 0.9127/37, 0.9110/19, 0.9102, 0. 9072/79, 0.9061/66, 0.9054/57, 0.9042/48, 0.9041, 0.9035, 0.8994/0.9008, 0.8981/87, 0.8967/69, 0.8951/57, 0.8923/36, 0.8918, 0.8906/12, 0.8887/92, 0.8869, 0.8857/61, 0.8842/47, 0.8819/25, 0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.
Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.

USD/CAD: Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0742/85, 1.0813, 1.0821, 1.0839/40, 1.0849, 1.0852/57, 1.0873/86, 1.0894, 1.0909, 1.0915, 1.0925/28, 1.0934/45, 1.0954/59, 1.0962/66, 1.0982/1.1001, 1.1032/53, 1.1069/70, 1.1089, 1.1099, 1.1102/09, 1.1116/32, 1.1141, 1.1152, 1.1158, 1.1172/73, 1.1194, 1.1223 and 1.1277.
Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.
Support:
Initial: 1.0736, 1.0726, 1.0717, 1.0702/07, 1.0676/79, 1.0668/76, 1.0659/60, 1.0646/56, 1.0621/27, 1.0608,1.0580/87, 1.0567/71, 1.0558/59, 1.0546, 1.0519/22, 1.0506, 1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87, 1.0459, 1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04, 1.0390/92, 1.0379, 1.0355/68, 1.0333, 1.0324, 1.0309/12, 1.0283/1.0305, 1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and 1.0012.
Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8734, 0.8744 and 0.8764/77.
Above: 0.8840.
Support:
Initial: 0.8693/0.8700, 0.8671/74, 0.8667, 0.8653, 0.8633/41, 0.8602/05, 0.8584/90, 0.8571/78, 0.8560/61, 0.8542/53, 0.8532, 0.8523/25, 0.8504/18, 0.8499, 0.8487/89, 0.8472/79, 0.8423/59, 0.8413, 0.8376/0.8406, 0.8359/66, 0.8322/53, 0.8302/16, 0.8291/95, 0.8285/87, 0.8280, 0.8271, 0.8263, 0.8250/55, 0.8221/41, 0.8204/14, 0.8195/97, 0.8186, 0.8171, 0.8160/63, 0.8147/53, 0.8114/37, 0.8100/09, 0.8078/82, 0.8049/60, 0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013, 0.7967, 0.7932, 0.7903/06, 0.7888, 0.7872, 0.7856/57, 0.7838/46, 0.7829, 0.7819 and 0.7804.
Below: 0.7795, 0.7783, 0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.

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