Forex Forecast: July 7 - July 11, 2014

The list also includes the current market consensus forecast for each event and indicates what sort of deviation might affect the forex market valuation of the indicated currency positively.

Monday, July 7th

• 2:30am AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (4.3%, > good for currency)
• 8:00am CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (449.6B, > good for currency)
• All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD Building Permits (13.8%, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI (46.9, > good for currency)
• 3:30pm CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey (hawkish = good for currency)
• 11:00pm NZD NZIER Business Confidence (last 52, > good for currency)

Tuesday, July 8th

• 12:50am JPY Current Account (0.17T, > good for currency)
• 2:30am AUD NAB Business Confidence (last 7, > good for currency)
• 7:00am EUR German Trade Balance (15.7B, > good for currency)
• 8th-9th GBP Halifax HPI (-0.3%, > good for currency)
• 8:15am CHF CPI (0.1%, > good for currency)
• 8:15am CHF Retail Sales (1.5%, > good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production (0.5%, > good for currency)
• 10:15am EUR ECOFIN Meetings (hawkish = good for currency)
• 3:00pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (last 0.9%, > good for currency)
• 3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings (4.53M, > good for currency)
• 6:45pm USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota speaks (hawkish = good for currency)

Wednesday, July 9th

• 1:30am AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (last 0.2%, > good for currency)
• 2:30am CNY CPI (2.4%)
• 2:30am CNY PPI (-1.1%)
• 1:15pm CAD Housing Starts (191K, > good for currency)
• 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories (last -3.2M, > good for currency)
• 7:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (hawkish = good for currency)
• 7:01pm USD 10-year Bond Auction (last average yield 2.65 percent, with a 2.9 bid to cover ratio, < yield and > ratio good for currency)
• 8:30pm EUR ECB President Draghi speaks (hawkish = good for currency)
• 11:30pm NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index (last 52.7, > good for currency)

Thursday, July 10th

• 12:50am JPY Core Machinery Orders (0.9%, > good for currency)
• 12:50am JPY Tertiary Industry Activity (1.9%, > good for currency)
• 2:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations (last 4.0%, > good for currency)
• 2:30am AUD Employment Change (12.3K, > good for currency)
• 2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate (5.9%, < good for currency)
• Tentative CNY Trade Balance (37.3B)
• 7:45am EUR French Industrial Production (0.5%, > good for currency)
• 10th-14th CNY New Loans (950B)
• 9:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin (hawkish = good for currency)
• 9:30am GBP Trade Balance (-9.0B, > good for currency)
• 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility (375B, > good for currency)
• 12:00am GBP Official Bank Rate (unchanged at 0.50%, > good for currency)
• Tentative GBP MPC Rate Statement (hawkish = good for currency)
• 1:30pm CAD NHPI (0.3%, > good for currency)
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (316K, < good for currency)

Friday, July 11th

• 2:30am AUD Home Loans (-0.4%, > good for currency)
• Tentative EUR Italian 10-year Bond Auction
• 1:30pm CAD Employment Change (26.2K, > good for currency)
• 1:30am CAD Unemployment Rate (7.0%, < good for currency)

Technical Forecast and Levels to Watch for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.3597,1.3602/15,1.3621/31,1.3642/50,1.3663/76,1.3682/86,1.3685/1.3710,1.3714/16,1.3731/39,1.3748, 1.3758/74,1.3784/98,1.3807,1.3810/20,1.3824,1.3832/36,1.3845/54,1.3864, 1.3875/78, 1.3888/92, 1.3905/14, 1.3937, 1.3947, 1.3966/69,1.3993/1.4000, 1.4246 and 1.4500/17.
Above: 1.4695 and 1.4939.
Support:
Initial: 1.3546/85,1.3538,1.3489/1.3524,1.3476/82, 1.3451,1.3441,1.3433/34,1.3416,1.3398/1.3409,1.3376/89,1.3344/53,1.3318/24, 1.3305/08,1.3294/99,1.3222/42,1.3187/1.3206, 1.3172/77, 1.3161/65,1.3126, 1.3093/1.3106, 1.3077, 1.3059/66 and1.3047.
Below: 1.3000, 1.2904/98, 1.2837/79, 1.2821, 1.2795/1.2805, 1.2744/54, 1.2623/92, 1.2588/89, 1.2501/19, 1.2407/96, 1.2381/91, 1.2323/33, 1.2241/55,1.2162, 1.2143, 1.2133, 1.204132 and1.1938.

USD/JPY: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 101.90/102.04, 102.13/14,102.26, 102.35/36, 102.49/52,102.57/82,102.93/103.01, 103.30,103.37/43,103.73/75,103.82,103.91,104.07/19, 104.36, 104.63, 104.83/91, 105.18, 105.33 and 105.41/43.
Above: 107.18, 108.42, 110.39/47 and 111.60.
Support:
Initial: 101.83,101.60/73,101.52/56,101.42/43,101.30/32, 101.19/27,101.13/14, 100.82/86,100.75, 100.60/65,100.38/48,100.22, 100.00, 99.94,99.66,99.40,99.25,99.13/14, 99.00,98.84/92,98.63/72,98.48/53,98.28,98.20,98.08,97.75/83, 97.49/63, 96.90/97.05,96.81, 96.65/70,96.55/56,96.05, 95.79/80, and 95.44.
Below: 94.90/95.07,94.87, 94.55, 94.19,94.05, 93.76, 93.78 93.68, 93.50, 93.17, 92.77/95, 92.14/30, 91.19, 90.85, 90.20/32,89.40/66, 88.05, 87.95/99 and 87.79.

GBP/USD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 1.7130 and 1.7176/78.
Above: 1.7440.
Support:
Initial: 1.7107, 1.7099, 1.7062,1.7042/51, 1.7010, 1.6995, 1.6951, 1.6919/20,1.6902/09,1.6874/81,1.6831/44,1.6819/22, 1.6812,1.6802,1.6785,1.6777,1.6768,1.6755, 1.6745, 1.6730/37, 1.6716/24,1.6692/98, 1.6683,1.6665/67,1.6640/56,1.6624, 1.6611/17,1.6592,1.6576/86,1.6548, 1.6516, 1.6484,1.6458/65,1.6441,1.6417/18,1.6400,1.6394,1.6380/83,1.6376, 1.6348, 1.6336, 1.6298/1.6309,1.6290, 1.6251/62,1.6239/46,1.6222/24,1.6215/16,1.6195/98,1.6177,1.6155,1.6130/36,1.6109/21,1.6083/96,1.6071/77,1.6051/66,1.6001/08,1.5975/91,1.5956/61,1.5948, 1.5900/27,1.5886/93,1.5874/77,1.5853, 1.5844,1.5825,1.5803/07,1.5775/81,1.5750,1.5714/17, 1.5683/92,1.5673,1.5624/56,1.5601/15,1.5591,1.5561/68, 1.5538/45 and1.5514/16.
Below: 1.5498/99, 1.5476/79, 1.5458, 1.5434, 1.5427, 1.5403/21, 1.5313/92, 1.5304, 1.5293,1.5260/62, 1.5237/39, 1.5208/23, 1.5198,1.5173/87, 1.5164, 1.5152/57, 1.5130, 1.5123, 1.5101, 1.5092, 1.5081, 1.5072/75,1.5026/32, 1.5013, 1.5007. 1.4985,1.4966/67,1.4884,1.4872, 1.4856, 1.4830, 1.4812 and 1.4785, 1.4345 and 1.4232.

AUD/USD: Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.9364/86,0.9391/98,0.9404/08, 0.9420/24,0.9428/33,0.9440/47, 0.9457 and0.9483/86.
Above: 0.9500, 0.9524/27,0.9536/42,0.9571, 0.9585,0.9592,0.9620,0.9640,0.9664, 0.9676, 0.9689/96, 0.9710, 0.9732, 0.9757, 0.9791/94, 0.9841/96, 0.9900, 0.9925/83, 1.0000/18, 1.0052, 1.0099/1.0100, 1.0114/17, 1.0148/51,1.0165/77 and 1.0181/82.
Support:
Initial: 0.9343/53, 0.9311/28, 0.9304,0.9291/94,0.9279/86,0.9268/72,0.9251, 0.9232,0.9214/26,0.9201/08, 0.9179/89,0.9162/67,0.9147,0.9127/37,0.9110/19,0.9102, 0.9072/79,0.9061/66,0.9054/57,0.9042/48,0.9041,0.9035, 0.8994/0.9008,0.8981/87,0.8967/69,0.8951/57,0.8923/36,0.8918,0.8906/12, 0.8887/92,0.8869,0.8857/61,0.8842/47,0.8819/25,0.8762/70, 0.8729, 0.8693, 0.8659, 0.8578 and 0.8512.
Below: 0.8066 and 0.7674.

USD/CAD: Mildly Lower

Resistance:
Initial: 1.0668/79,1.0702/07,1.0717,1.0726,1.0736, 1.0742/85,1.0813,1.0821,1.0839/40,1.0849,1.0852/57, 1.0873/86,1.0894, 1.0909,1.0915, 1.0925/28,1.0934/45,1.0954/59,1.0962/66, 1.0982/1.1001,1.1032/53, 1.1069/70,1.1089,1.1099,1.1102/09,1.1116/32,1.1141,1.1152,1.1158,1.1172/73,1.1194, 1.1223 and 1.1277.
Above: 1.1723, 1.2985, 1.3007/14 and 1.3062.
Support:
Initial: 1.0646/60,1.0619/27, 1.0608,1.0580/87,1.0567/71,1.0558/59, 1.0546,1.0519/22,1.0506,1.0496/1.0502, 1.0471/87,1.0459,1.0441/44, 1.0414/18, 1.0401/04,1.0390/92,1.0379,1.0355/68,1.0333,1.0324,1.0309/12,1.0283/1.0305,1.0270/76, 1.0262, 1.0244/55, 1.0233/35, 1.0199/1.0226, 1.0172/82, 1.0165, 1.0151/56, 1.0148, 1.0128/42, 1.0103/05, 1.0081/99, 1.0050/56, 1.0029/34, 1.0018 and1.0012.
Below: 0.9993/98, 0.9984, 0.9969, 0.9945/60, 0.9931, 0.9922, 0.9902/07, 0.9899, 0.9858, 0.9814/26, 0.9724/99, 0.9686, 0.9645, 0.9631, 0.9525, 0.9445 and 0.9405.

NZD/USD: Mildly Higher

Resistance:
Initial: 0.8764/77, 0.8789 and 0.8792.
Above: 0.8840.
Support:
Initial: 0.8744, 0.8734, 0.8712/16, 0.8693/0.8700,0.8671/74, 0.8660/67,0.8653,0.8633/41,0.8602/05,0.8584/90,0.8571/78,0.8560/61,0.8542/53,0.8532,0.8523/25, 0.8504/18,0.8499,0.8487/89, 0.8472/79,0.8423/59,0.8413,0.8376/0.8406,0.8359/66,0.8322/53,0.8302/16,0.8291/95,0.8285/87,0.8280, 0.8271, 0.8263,0.8250/55,0.8221/41,0.8204/14,0.8195/97,0.8186, 0.8171,0.8160/63,0.8147/53,0.8114/37, 0.8100/09,0.8078/82,0.8049/60,0.8030, 0.7989/0.8013,0.7967,0.7932,0.7903/06,0.7888,0.7872,0.7856/57,0.7838/46,0.7829,0.7819 and0.7804.
Below: 0.7795,0.7783,0.7760, 0.7751/58, 0.7731/34, 0.7705/23, 0.7697, 0.7681/86, 0.7605/76 and 0.7500/85.