Forex Followup For September 1 - September 5, 2014

Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of September 1st through September 5th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of September 1st through September 5th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, September 1^st

• 2:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.1 versus 51.2 expected.
• 2:45am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 50.2 versus 50.3 expected.
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 52.5 versus 55.1 expected. The currency rose.
• All Day CAD Bank Holiday
• All Day USD Bank Holiday

Tuesday, September 2^nd

• 2:30am AUD Building Approvals 2.5% versus 1.7% expected. The currency fell.
• 5:30am AUD Cash Rate Decision unchanged at 2.50% versus 2.50% expected. The currency fell.
• 5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement: Governor Glenn Stevens noted that, "Monetary policy remains accommodative. Interest rates are very low and have continued to edge lower over recent months as competition to lend has increased. Investors continue to look for higher returns in response to low rates on safe instruments. Credit growth has picked up a little, including most recently to businesses. The increase in dwelling prices continues. The exchange rate, on the other hand, remains above most estimates of its fundamental value, particularly given the declines in key commodity prices. It is offering less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy." The currency fell.
• 9:30am GBP Construction PMI 64.0 versus 61.5 expected. The currency fell.
• 3:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.0 versus 57.0 expected. The currency rose overall.

Wednesday, September 3^rd

• 2:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.4 versus 54.2 expected.
• 2:30am AUD GDP 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
• 4:20am AUD RBA Governor Stevens said that, "Another pricing puzzle is exchange rates. Many in Australia have commented at length about the relatively high value of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. The Bank has made its views on this pretty clear and so I won't reiterate them today. But it's worth noting that many other countries have had a similar puzzle to ours – so the real question is why the US dollar has remained as low as it has. Overall then, the global environment remains ‘interesting’, with significant challenges, uncertainties and puzzles. All that said, from Australia's point of view, the world economy continues to grow, inflation remains contained, our terms of trade though falling remain high, and financial conditions are remarkably accommodative." The currency rose.
• 7:30pm GBP Services PMI 60.5 versus 58.6 expected. The currency fell.
• 3:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement noted that, "In Canada, stronger growth in the second quarter has brought GDP to almost exactly the level the Bank had projected in July's MPR. Canadian exports surged in the second quarter after a weak winter, supported notably by stronger U.S. investment spending and the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. While an increasing number of export sectors appear to be turning the corner toward recovery, this pickup will need to be sustained before it will translate into higher business investment and hiring. Meanwhile, activity in the housing market has been stronger than anticipated. The Bank still expects excess capacity in the economy to be absorbed during the next two years." The currency fell.
• 3:00pm CAD Overnight Rate unchanged at 1.00% versus 1.00% expected. The currency fell.

Thursday, September 4^th

• 2:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.4% versus 0.4% expected. The currency was unchanged.
• 2:30am AUD Trade Balance -1.36B versus -1.77B expected. The currency was unchanged.
• 4:07am JPY BOJ Monetary Policy Statement noted that, "Japan's economy has continued to recover moderately as a trend, although the subsequent decline in demand following the front-loaded increase prior to the consumption tax hike has been observed. Overseas economies -- mainly advanced economies -- have been recovering, albeit with a lackluster performance still seen in part. Exports have shown some weakness. Business fixed investment has increased moderately as corporate profits have improved. Public investment has more or less leveled off at a high level." The currency fell.
• 7:31am JPY BOJ Press Conference: BOJ Governor Kuroda said that, "Exports and output are showing weak movements. But job and income conditions are improving steadily, and household confidence is firm. Companies, reflecting improving earnings, are maintaining their bullish investment plans. A positive economic cycle remains in place." The currency fell.
• 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at 375B versus 375B expected. The currency fell.
• 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% versus 0.50% expected. The currency fell.
• 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate Decision: cut to 0.05% versus unchanged at 0.15% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 204K versus 216K expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Trade Balance 2.6B versus 0.9B expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference: ECB President Draghi said that, "Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided today to lower the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem by 10 basis points to 0.05% and the rate on the marginal lending facility by 10 basis points to 0.30%. The rate on the deposit facility was lowered by 10 basis points to -0.20%. In addition, the Governing Council decided to start purchasing non-financial private sector assets. The Eurosystem will purchase a broad portfolio of simple and transparent asset-backed securities (ABSs) with underlying assets consisting of claims against the euro area non-financial private sector under an ABS purchase programme (ABSPP)." The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Trade Balance -40.5B versus -42.5B expected. The currency rose overall.
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 302K versus 298K expected. The currency rose overall.
• 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 59.6 versus 57.3 expected. The currency rose overall.

Friday, September 5^th

• 1:30pm CAD Employment Change -11.0K versus 10.3K expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 7.0% versus 7.0% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Non-Farm Payrolls 142K versus 222K expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Unemployment Rate 6.1% versus 6.1% expected. The currency fell.
• 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 50.9 versus 55.7 expected. The currency fell.

Technical Recap for the Majors This Week

EUR/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.3128 open to a 1.2957 close.

USD/JPY:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 104.16 open to a 104.92 close.

GBP/USD:
Forecast: Lower
Actual: Lower from a 1.6589 open to a 1.6307 close.

AUD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.9327 open to a 0.9372 close.

USD/CAD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly higher from a 1.0872 open to a 1.0890 close.

NZD/USD:
Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.8354 open to a 0.8324 close.

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