The U.S. dollar ended the last week in negative territory against other major peers, in particular versus the euro and pound. This sell-off is not only due to the impact that American protectionist policies will have on global growth but also on the U.S. dollar’s uncertain role as a safe haven currency. During the financial crisis in 2008-09 the dollar benefited from its role as a safe haven but the sentiment seems to be shifting, with the greenback losing its attraction amidst trade tensions and an uncertain political environment.
Fort the time being, however, the outlook for the dollar remains neutral.
The euro generally strengthened on the back of broad-based dollar weakness but the EUR/USD still struggles to find a clear direction. We will keep tabs on the technical picture in order to evaluate the possibility of profitable trading chances.
This week will be a holiday-shortened trading week with many markets closed on Friday for the Easter holiday. However, this doesn’t mean that there will be no volatility. Let us be surprised.
Except of U.S. and U.K. GDP data and the Fed’s PCE Index, there are no major economic reports or risk events on the economic docket this week.
EUR/USD
Currently, we see the pair trading at the upper barrier of a symmetrical triangle. If the euro is able to overcome the 1.2390-hurdle, it could head for a test of 1.2415. For bullish momentum to gain steam it would need a sustained break above 1.2420 and 1.2450. For bearish momentum to accelerate, the euro would first need to drop below 1.2340 and further 1.2270. A lower support is seen at 1.2220.
GBP/USD
The cable trades with a tailwind and there could be room for further gains towards 1.43. If the pound climbs above 1.4190 it may extend its gains towards 1.4220 and 1.43. On the downside, however, if it drops back below 1.4090, we may see a test of 1.40.
We wish you good trades and a happy pre-Easter period.
Here are our daily signal alerts:
EUR/USD
Long at 1.2391 SL 25 TP 20, 50
Short at 1.2320 SL 25 TP 20, 50
GBP/USD
Long at 1.4175 SL 25 TP 40, 100
Short at 1.4140 SL 25 TP 40
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