Economic Data
(RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jun 25th (RUB): 7.14T v 7.13T prior
(FR) France Q1 Final Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e
(DE) Germany May Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v +1.9%e
(FI) Finland Apr Final Trade Balance: -€103M v -€80M prelim
(ZA) South Africa May Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 8.3% v 8.0%e; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.5% v 6.2%e
(HU) Hungary Q1 Current Account: €186M v €120Me
(FR) France May Producer Prices M/M: -1.0% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.7%e
(FR) France May Consumer Spending M/M: 0.4% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.1%e
(HU) Hungary May Producer Prices M/M: 0.8% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 7.8% v 7.0%e
(CH) Swiss Jun KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: 1.16 v 0.78e
(TR) Turkey May Trade Balance: -$8.6B v -$8.0Be
(DK) Denmark Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.4% v 0.3% prelim; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.2% prelim
(AT) Austria May Producer Price Index M/M: -0.3% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.6 v 1.1% prior
(SE) Sweden May Household Lending Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.7%e
(SE) Sweden Apr Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.3 v 2.6% prior
(TH) Thailand May Current Account Balance: -$1.5B v -$0.9Be; Total Trade Account Balance: +$574M v -$734M prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$2.8B v -$1.0B prior
(TH) Thailand May Business Sentiment Index: 53.8 v 47.7 prior
(ES) Spain Apr Current Account: -€1.7B v -€3.2B prior
(CZ) Czech May Money Supply Y/Y: 6.1% v 6.5% prior
(EU) Euro Zone May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.3%e; M3 3-Month Avg: 2.8% v 2.6%e
(NO) Norway May Retail sales Volume M/M: 1.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 3.6%e
(UK) Apr Index of Services M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; 3M/3M: 0.0% v -0.2%e
(HK) Hong Kong May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.5% v 5.5% prior
(EU) Euro Zone Jun CPI Estimate Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e
(GR) Greece Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -13.5% v -16.2%; Retail sale Volume Y/Y: -11.6% v -15.1% prior
(GR) Greece May PPI Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.1% prior
Fixed Income:
(IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2017, 2022, 2030 and 2036 bonds
(ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2025, 2033 and 2038 Bonds
SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM
Notes/Observations
Euro surges on a handout and a promise; Merkel notes conditionality still remains
ESM to be open for countries not in programs, and to "well-behaving" countries.
Spanish and Italian yield plummet in session
German Retail Sales disappoint
Equities
FTSE 100 +1.3% at 5564, DAX +2% at 6273, CAC-40 +2.4% at 3124, IBEX-35 +2.4% at 6882, FTSE MIB +2.6% at 13,735, SMI +0.80% at 6035, S&P 500 Futures +1.3% at 1339
European equity indices opened the session sharply higher, led by more than 3% gains in the IBEX-35 and FTSE MIB, as EU President Van Rompuy said that the EU will eventually allow direct recapitalizations of banks. Additionally, he disclosed that ESM loans to Spanish banks would not have seniority and that countries not currently involved bailout programs (such as Italy and Spain) will gain the ability to access the EU's bailout funds. Van Rompuy said he wants these decisions to be ready by the July 9th Euro Group meeting. Following the news out of the summit, European banks are broadly higher, with the gains being led by Spanish, Italian and French Banks. As of the time of writing, European markets have pared gains, as Italian yields have moved off of the session lows, amid data which showed that banks in Italy continue to increase their exposures to sovereign debt (Italy Banks May net purchases of government debt: €12.3B v €6.6B m/m). Also Germany Finance Ministry affirmed that aid from the EFSF/ESM will always have certain conditions. In terms of upcoming event risks for today, Germany's parliament is due to vote on the ESM/Fiscal pact (voting in due to begin around 1500 GMT). Also, today is the last day of the EU summit.
UK Banks have underperformed their continental European peers, amid continued concerns about the ongoing probe related to Libor. Also, various UK banks announced a settlement agreement with the FSA related to allegations that they mis-sold certain types of interest rate hedging products. Following yesterday's sharp decline, shares of Barclay [BARC.UK] have moved between gains and losses on today's session. Education technology firm Promethean World [PRW.UK] has declined by over 40%, as the company announced a profit warning. In other UK movers, Berkeley Group [BKG.UK] has gained over 2.5% (issued FY11/12 results), Betfair [BET.UK] is higher by ~2% (reported FY11/12 results) and 3i Group [III.UK] is up by over 1.5% (announced cost cutting measures). In France, shares of Lafarge [LG.FR] have advanced by over 2%, as the company's reiterated its growth forecast for the cement market. Amid the broad gains being seen in banks, Credit Suisse is trading higher by ~3%, after disclosing that it expects to be profitable in Q2.