European Market Update: Germany Economic Data Mixed, Trading Subdued

Germany economic data mixed in session; Trading subdued into month-end

Notes/Observations

FOMC reiterated its condition of 6.5% unemployment and repeated to buy USTs at $45B a month and MBS at $40B per month; Growth in economic activity had paused in recent months

US Senate reaches deal to vote on debt ceiling extension today and is expected to pass

German Chancellor Merkel might not have majority support from her own coalition to approve possible Cyprus aid; SPD opposition will probably vote against it

Japan Dec Industrial Production data below expectations but did rise by fastest pace in 18 months

BoE's Weale: Would not rule out further QE at some stage

Germany Dec Retail Sales come in well below expectations

Germany's Jan Unemployment data comes in better than expected with back month improvement

Economic Data

(DE) Germany Dec Retail Sales M/M: -1.7% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -4.7% v -1.5%e

(UK) Jan Nationwide House Prices M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.3%e

(DE) Germany Dec ILO Employment: 41.65M v 41.55M prior; Unemployment rate: 5.3% v 5.3% prior

(FI) Finland Nov Final Trade Balance: €180M v €210M prelim

(TH) Thailand Dec Current Account: +730M v -$700Me; Total Trade Balance: $283M v $627M prior; Overall Trade Balance: $0.8B v $1.2B prior

(TH) Thailand Dec Business Sentiment Index: 50.6 v 52.0 prior

(FR) France Dec Producer Prices M/M: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.0%e

(FR) France Dec Consumer Spending M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.1%e

(HU) M/M: Hungary Dec Producer Prices M/M: +0.5% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.0%

(DK) Denmark Dec Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.9%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.2% v 6.3%e

(TR) Turkey Dec Trade Balance: -$7.2B v -$9.5Be

(ES) Spain Jan Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.0%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.8% v 3.1%e

(EU) ECB: €3.01B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €4.0M prior; €165.9B parked in deposit facility vs. €208.1B prior

(HK) Hong Kong Dec Govt Monthly Budget Balance (HKD): 51.7B v 24.8B prior

(HK) Hong Kong Dec Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 8.8% v 7.6%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 8.1% v 6.5%e

(DE) Germany Jan Unemployment Change: -16K v +8.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.9%e

(NO) Norway Dec Retail Sales Volume M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v 2.4% prior

(IC) Iceland Dec Final Trade Balance (ISK): 3.5B v 5.0B prelim

(IT) Italy Dec PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e

(CZ) Czech Dec Money Supply Y/Y: 4.5% v 5.0% prior

(NO) Norway Dec Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.5% v 6.9%e

(HK) Hong Kong Dec M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 12.1% v 10.9% prior

(ES) Spain Nov Current Account: €1.8B v €0.9B prior

(ZA) South Africa Dec PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.5%e

(EU) Euro Area Q3 house Prices: -0.7% q/q, -2.5% y/y

(MA) Malaysia Dec M3 Money Supply y/y: 8.8% v 10.7% prior

(GR) Greece Nov Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -16.8% v -18.1% prior

(IN) India Apr-Dec Budget Balance (INR) -4.05T; at 78.8% of FY13 target of INR5.14T

(MA) Malaysia Central Bank leaves Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%. as expected

Fixed Income:

(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF65B vs. HUF50B indicated in 12-Months Treasury Bills; Avg Yield 5.23% v 5.33% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.21x v 2.08x

(SE) Sweden sold SEK750M in I/L 2022 bonds; Yield: 0.2613%

(IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) to offer 5 new amortizing bonds to primary dealers

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices: FTSE 100 -0.40% at 6,299, DAX -0.30% at 7,784, CAC-40 -0.70% at 3,740, IBEX-35 -1.7% at 8,430, FTSE MIB -1% at 17,122, SMI -0.10% at 7,381, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,495

European equity indices are broadly lower, as traders digest US Jan ADP employment and Q4 growth figures, in addition to earnings reports from Santander and Deutsche Bank. Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX-35 are leading the declines, amid the rise in peripheral bond yields. Banks are broadly lower, with the exception of Deutsche Bank, while resources related firms are mostly in negative territory. US companies due to report earnings results during the morning session include Aetna, Altria, Colgate, Dow Chemical, Mastercard, Potash, Under Armour, UPS and Whirlpool

UK moves [E2V Technologies -18% (profit warning), Real Good Food -13.5% (profit warning),Enterprise Inn -10% (sales update), Astrazeneca -5% (FY13 guidance), Investec -2.5% (H1 results), 3i -2% (Q3 trading update), Shell -1.2% (Q4 results); Lonmin +8.5% (production update, broker commentary), Mitchells & Butlers +7.5% (sales update),Kazakhmys +3% (FY12 production), British Sky +1% (H1 results),Diageo +0.90% (H1 results)]

France movers [Credit Agricole -2.5% (speculation related to new provisions),STMicroelectronics -1.5% (Q4 results); Altran +2.5% (FY12 sales]

Germany movers [Infineon +3% (Q1 results),Fresenius SE +2.5% (broker commentary), Deutsche Bank +1% (Q4 earnings)]

Italy movers [Saipem +3.5% (short sale ban in Italy), Banca Monte Paschi flat (Moody's placed rating on downgrade review]

Spain movers [Santander -2.3% (FY12 results)]

Switzerland movers [Nobel Biocare -3.6% (broker commentary); Bucher +1.5% (FY12 sales, outlook)]