It’s been an uneventful week for EUR/USD, and this trend has continued on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading slightly below the 1.14 line. On the release front, there are no major releases on the schedule. German Trade Balance beat expectations, but French Industrial Production was well short of the forecast. In the US, the sole release is Wholesale Sales, with the markets expecting a decline of 0.2%.
The ECB released the minutes of its March policy meeting. At the meeting, the ECB implemented significant monetary steps, lowering all three of its interest rates and increasing its asset-purchase program (QE) from EUR 60 billion to 80 billion/mth. The main refinancing rate was cut from 0.05% to a flat 0.0%. The ECB has pumped some EUR 700 billion into its asset-purchase program, but the results have been disappointing, as the Eurozone continues to grapple with weak growth and inflation levels. The minutes indicated that the ECB Governing Council was broadly unified behind ECB president Mario Draghi, supporting the monetary package which the ECB adopted at the March meeting. The minutes acknowledged the difficult situation of the Eurozone economy, noting that the pace of recovery is expected to remain weak and uncertainties in the global economic environment pose significant risks to the Eurozone. Governing Council members also called for structural reforms, a theme that has often been mentioned by Draghi.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
Friday (April 8)
- 00:15 FOMC Member Esther George Speaks
- 6:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 19.2B. Actual 19.8B
- 6:45 French Government Budget Balance. Estimate -25.6B
- 6:45 French Industrial Production. Estimate -0.3%. Actual -1.0%
- 12:30 FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks
- 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate -0.2%
*Key events are in bold
*All release times are GMT
EUR/USD for Friday, April 8, 2016
EUR/USD April 8 at 10:00 GMT
Open: 1.1366 Low: 1.1349 High: 1.1394 Close: 1.1385
EUR/USD Technical
| S1 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1.1172 | 1.1278 | 1.1378 | 1.1495 | 1.1609 | 1.1712 |
- EUR/USD has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions
- 1.1378 has switched to a support role. It is a weak line and could see further action during the day
- 1.1495 is as strong resistance line
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.1378, 1.1278, 1.1172 and 1.1087
- Above: 1.1495, 1.1609 and 1.1712
- Current range: 1.1378 to 1.1495
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Friday, consistent with limited movement by EUR/USD. Short positions have a strong majority (64%), indicative of strong trader bias towards EUR/USD moving to lower levels.