- Germany Unemployment to Contract for Second Consecutive Month.
- Jobless Rate to Hold at Annualized 6.7% for Six Straight Months.
- Need red, green-minute candle following the print to consider a long EUR/USD position
- If market reaction favors a long euro trade, buy EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from cost; at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit
- Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EUR/USD trade
- Implement same strategy as the bullish euro trade, just in the opposite direction
- Despite the long-term bearish RSI momentum, may see a larger rebound as the oscillator rebounds from oversold territory.
- Interim Resistance: 1.3510 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3520 (38.2% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.3140 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3150 Pivot
Trading the News: German Unemployment Change
Germany’s Unemployment report may generate a more meaningful rebound in the EUR/USD should the data highlight an improved outlook the euro-area’s largest economy.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:Despite fears of a slowing recovery in the monetary union, a further decline in unemployment may keep the European Central Bank (ECB) on the sidelines throughout the remainder of 2014, and a further improvement in the economic outlook may limit the downside risks for the EUR/USD as market participants scale back bets for more non-standard measures.
Bullish EUR Trade: German Unemployment Declines 5K or Greater
Bullish EUR Trade: Labor Market Report Disappoints
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EUR/USD Daily
Impact that Germany’s Unemployment report has had on EUR/USD during the last release
|
Period |
Data Released |
Estimate |
Actual |
Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) |
Pips Change (End of Day post event) |
|
JUL 2014 |
07/31/2014 7:55 GMT |
-5K |
-12K |
0 |
-3 |
July 2014 German Unemployment Change
Unemployment in German shrank by 12,000 in July, more than the average estimate for a 5,000 decline, while the jobless rate was unchanged at 6.6% as in June. However, the euro fell against the US Dollar after the release, though the pair came back later during the North America trade. Despite the better-than-expected data, it seems as though one single good print may not be strong enough to shift the near-term outlook for the EUR/USD as it remains in a downward trend.