Back in the first week of November we had EUR/USD in focus with this to say as the monthly approached a major trend line support level:
Price just isn’t going to crack and say goodbye to a level of that significance this close to a potential Fed hike (as much of a lock as it may be), let alone the possibility of a Trump presidency.
EUR/USD Monthly:
I love quoting my old posts as the real world narrative unfolds. We weren’t thinking about a Trump presidency AND a Fed rate hike together. It was supposed to be one or the other…
But with Trump soon to be in the White House and Yellen still on track to hike, as of Friday EUR/USD printed its tenth straight bearish daily candle. That’s the longest consecutive run of daily losses since the Euro started trading in 1999!
EUR/USD Daily:
But taking a closer look, price is actually still in the following daily range:
EUR/USD Daily 2:
Price is approaching support, but with huge fundamental and technical momentum behind the move, it will be interesting to see the price action as price reaches the zone.
These moves have been mostly driven by USD strength with the likelihood of a Fed rate hike continuing to rise, but remember that we have an Italian referendum fast approaching as well as the endless threat of further monetary stimulus from Draghi and the European Central Bank.
Best of probabilities in your trading this week!
On the Calendar Monday:
A fairly quiet one on the calendar today, with Draghi’s speech well into the US session the only high impact event.
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