GROWTHACES.COM Forex Trading Strategies
Taken Positions
EUR/USD: long at 1.0740, target 1.1000, stop-loss moved to 1.0740, risk factor *
GBP/USD: long at 1.4900, target 1.5270, stop-loss moved to 1.5020, risk factor *
USD/JPY: short at 119.35, target 117.20, stop-loss 120.20, risk factor **
USD/CAD: short at 1.2280, target 1.2000, stop-loss moved to 1.2280, risk factor **
AUD/USD: long at 0.7730, target 0.7950, stop-loss moved to 0.7730, risk factor **
NZD/USD: long at 0.7630, target 0.7850, stop-loss 0.7520, risk factor **
EUR/GBP: long at 0.7170, target 0.7350, stop-loss 0.7110, risk factor ***
EUR/JPY: long at 129.00,target 131.10, stop-loss , 128.00 risk factor *
CHF/JPY: long at 124.70, target 126.85, stop-loss 124.00, risk factor ***
AUD/JPY: long at 91.80, target 94.00, stop-loss 91.80, risk factor **
Pending Orders
USD/CHF: sell at 0.9600, if filled - target 0.9365, stop-loss 0.9700, risk factor ***
GBP/JPY: buy at 179.95, if filled - target 182.20, stop-loss 178.90, risk factor *
AUD/NZD: buy at 1.0190, if filled – target 1.0400, stop-loss 1.0090, risk factor ***
EUR/USD: Waiting For Wednesday’s FOMC Statement
(long for 1.1000)
- U.S. business investment spending plans fell for a seventh straight month in March, weighed down by a strong USD. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, declined 0.5% mom in March after a revised 2.2% drop in February. The so-called core capital goods orders were previously reported to have declined 1.1% mom in February. Economists had forecast these orders gaining 0.3% mom last month.
- The USD and reduced capex spending by oil-field firms combined with a harsh winter and softer global demand to slow U.S. growth at the start of the year. In March, shipments of core capital goods - which are used to calculate equipment spending in the government's GDP measurement - fell 0.4% after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in February.
- The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate for first-quarter GDP growth on Wednesday. The market expects growth of 1.0% qoq annualized, but our forecast is only 0.8%. We expect no growth in investment spending and net exports to subtract about 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth.
- The EUR/USD appreciated on Friday but found resistance at 1.0900. The next short-term hurdle is at 1.0954, daily high on April 7. In our opinion dovish FOMC statement on Wednesday may result in stronger EUR/USD rises. Breaking above 1.1051 is possible in the coming days and could signal the completion of a double bottom and set the stage for larger bullish extensions.
- Eurozone finance ministers warned Greece on Friday that it will get no more aid until it agrees a complete economic reform plan. At the ministers' meeting on Friday, Greece was sharply criticised for dragging its feet on preparation of reforms that would unlock funding from its international lenders even though Athens is quickly running out of cash and without new lending will not be able to service its debts.
- Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chaired the meeting in Riga, said finance ministers would review progress again on May 11, a day before Greece has to make a crucial and uncertain EUR 750 million payment to the International Monetary Fund.
- At a briefing with reporters after a tense meeting of Eurozone finance ministers on Greece on Friday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was asked if euro zone finance ministers were working on a Plan B in case negotiations on funding with cash-strapped Athens fail. He indicated that if he were to answer in the affirmative that ministers were working on a Plan B, what to do when Greece runs out of money and cannot pay back its debt, he could trigger panic.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.0900 (high Apr 24), 1.0954 (high Apr 7), 1.1035 (high Apr 6)
Support: 1.0785 (low Apr 24), 1.0771 (21-dma), 1.0767 (10-dma)
GBP/USD Hit 7-Week High, Eyes On GDP Growth Data Tomorrow
(long for 1.5270)
- The GBP/USD hit a seven-week on Monday at 1.5190. The GBP made impressive gains last week, rising 1.5% against the USD, lifted by a growing view within the nine-member monetary policy committee of the Bank of England that the next move by the central bank will be a rate hike. The BoE also flagged upside risks to inflation in its minutes released last week.
- The volatility on the GBP/USD is likely to increase further as we approach the 7 May general election. Polls show the governing Conservative and opposition Labour neck and neck, making a 'hung parliament' likely, in which no single party commands a majority.
- UK first-quarter GDP data will be released on Tuesday. Growth is forecast to have moderated in the first quarter, slowing to 0.5% qoq from 0.6% qoq in the fourth quarter. Our forecast is in line with the market consensus, but we see a risk of the below-expectations reading.
- We stay long on the GBP/USD as we expect dovish FOMC statement on Wednesday, but the GBP will be probably outperformed by the EUR due to election risks and possible weaker GDP growth data tomorrow. That is why we stay also EUR/USD long.
Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.5190 (hourly high Apr 27), 1.5257 (high Mar 6), 1.5270 (high Mar 5)
Support: 1.5051 (55-dma), 1.5029 (low Apr 24), 1.4961 (low Apr 23)