The EUR/USD has been in a tight bear channel for about a month. This is a sell climax, but there is no bottom yet and it is only 60 pips above its April low and about 100 pips above the March low, which is the low of the past 15 years. Both are important support. Support is a magnet that draws the market to it. If the EUR/USD reverses up from its current level without reaching those lower prices, most traders will see the selloff as a successful test of support, and they will see it as the 2nd leg down in a double bottom. Even if the EUR/USD reverses up from below its March low, it will still be a double bottom.
Because the daily chart is in a sell climax, the odds are that it will soon bounce for about a month. The bulls will see the reversal up as a double bottom and the start of a bull trend. When the test down is in a tight channel, as it has been, the first reversal up is usually sold. This means that even if the bulls are able to rally 250 pips to the bottom of the May-July trading range, the rally will probably be followed by a test back down.
Bulls have been making money over the past month by buying every new low on the 60-minute and 240-minute charts. They scale in lower and the scalp out on a reversal back above the prior low. When the bulls are able to repeatedly make money buying in a strong bear trend, that bear trend is not as strong as it appears. It usually is a bear leg in what will become a trading range. This means that the odds are that the 2 month selloff will have a 200 pip rally soon and that the bear trend will then evolve into a trading range. Until there is a strong bull reversal, bulls will continue to only buy new lows and scalp. If they get their strong reversal up, they will conclude that the next selloff will not reach the prior low. They will then chance their style of trading to trading range trading. They will start to buy strong selloffs before there is a new low. The result will be a trading range. Bears will continue to sell every rally, but will soon begin to scalp more. This will also result in trading range price action.
At the moment, bulls buy new lows and scalp. Bears sell rallies for scalps or swing trades. This will probably soon be replaced by trading range price action that will last for at least a month where both will scalp.