EUR/USD Daily Analysis: Bullish pressure is increasing in EUR/USD with price failing to make a new low below 1.35 (June 5th low) and putting in a new high yesterday at 1.3586. This is on top of a bullish RSI divergence and price is once again touching that rising RSI support line (red line on 4h chart), meaning we expect a short-term challenge of 1.3600. Of course, longer-term analysis is bullish (look at rising support on weekly chart), and medium term analysis is bearish (we have had a 500 pip drop since May 8th).
4h Chart
Long-term Trend Analysis Chart
Our Preferred Trades*: Given that mixed analysis we will stay flat for today and instead look to trade the inverse USD/CHF which offers a better setup (see USD/CHF analysis for setup details). In general we are short-term bullish above 1.35 and short-term bearish below 1.3600 – a break of either is needed to confirm a trend, otherwise we are ranging between those two values.
Yesterday’s EURUSD SwingPRO Signal Result: No setups triggered yesterday.
Today’s SwingPRO Signal: Flat.
*CandlePRO: CandlePRO can be used in conjunction with our daily analysis and “our preferred trades.” For example, if we prefer “going short” or “selling a rally” then we would look for bearish candlestick signals after a rally or near resistance levels. Alternative if we prefer “going long” or “buying a dip” then we would look for bullish candlestick signals on price drops or near support levels.
Today’s Important News Events:
| Date | Time (UTC) | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Jun 17 | USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting | ||||
| 01:30 | AUD RBA Releases Minutes of June Policy Meeting | ||||
| 05:45 | CHF SECO June 2014 Economic Forecasts | ||||
| 08:30 | GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAY) | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 08:30 | GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | |
| 08:30 | GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | |
| 08:30 | GBP Retail Price Index (MAY) | 255.9 | 256.2 | 255.7 | |
| 08:30 | GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (MAY) | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | |
| 08:30 | GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (MAY) | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 08:30 | GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (MAY) | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | |
| 09:00 | EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUN) | 58.4 | 55.2 | ||
| 09:00 | EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (JUN) | 67.7 | 62.1 | 62.1 | |
| 09:00 | EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (JUN) | 29.8 | 35.0 | 33.1 | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAY) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAY) | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAY) | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
| 12:30 | USD Building Permits (MAY) | 991K | 1060K | 1059K | |
| 12:30 | USD Building Permits (MoM) (MAY) | -6.4% | -3.9% | 5.9% | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (MAY) | 237.776 | 237.618 | 237.163 | |
| 12:30 | USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (MAY) | 237.900 | 237.615 | 237.072 | |
| 12:30 | USD Housing Starts (MAY) | 1001K | 1030K | 1071K | |
| 12:30 | USD Housing Starts (MoM) (MAY) | -6.5% | -3.9% | 12.7% | |
| 23:50 | JPY Bank of Japan May 20-21 meeting minutes | ||||
| 23:50 | JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (MAY) | -¥1189.3B | -¥811.7B | ||
| 23:50 | JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (MAY) | -1.3 | 5.1 | ||
| 23:50 | JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (MAY) | 1.8 | 3.4 |