The EUR/USD had a flat, poorly shaped wedge top on the 240-minute chart. Yesterday was the bear breakout. Even though the wedge was mostly a trading range and not a buy climax, the selloff and the wedge make it likely that there will be a 2nd leg sideways to down over the next several days. This means that the first reversal up will probably be sold. The EUR/USD is trying to hold at its 20-day moving average, and that could be the reason for the bounce. It might test the 1.1340 bottom of the 8 day tight trading range before the 2nd leg down begins.
The selloff was not strong. It had 8 consecutive bear bars on the 240-minute chart, but the bars were not very big. This makes it more likely a bear leg in a pullback or trading range than the start of a bear trend. The key price on the downside is the most recent higher low around 1.1140. The EUR/USD 240-minute chart is in a bull channel as long as it keeps forming higher lows. If it falls below that low, it will have converted into either a trading range or a bear trend. The bulls will try hard to prevent that from happening.
Since a bounce and then a 2nd led down are likely, the EUR/USD might go sideways for a day or two to create a small base that could support the bounce. Then, day traders will look for a 2nd leg sideways to down, which would be a test of the 1.1140 higher low. Bears will see the bounce as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders top on the 240-minute chart. Tops have about a 40% chance of success, so the odds of a trading range or a continued bull channel are greater that those of a big selloff down to the March lows around 1.0800.