EUR/USD Steadies Ahead Of Thanksgiving
- The dollar steadied ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday after surging on expectations that a Donald Trump administration will boost growth and push up U.S. interest rates.
- Later today, focus will turn to U.S. durable goods orders and minutes from the Fed's November policy meeting, though the latter are not seen as likely to move the dollar much. Markets are now pricing in around a 95% chance of a December Fed hike.
- The U.S. is on holiday tomorrow and it is going to be a very light trading activity during Black Friday. You can use this opportunity to check our discount prices for trading signals.
- Investors will probably end up coming back on Monday to refocus not so much on the dollar but more what are their expectations for Europe going forward. The euro is facing a host of political risks in the coming months - from an Italian constitutional referendum in less than two weeks to French and German elections next year - that are seen as likely to drive the euro lower.
- We are looking to sell the EUR/USD on upticks. In our opinion currency bears are likely to break below 2016 low at 1.0569 soon.
AUD/USD: Our Target Is 0.7560
- The Australian dollar edged up on Wednesday as less volatile markets, rising equities and commodities underpinned sentiment for carry trades, where the market borrows at low rates in yen to buy higher yielding assets.
- The strength in commodities helped offset softness in domestic construction, which showed a surprisingly steep drop of 4.9% in the third quarter. Weak construction data suggests that third quarter GDP growth was rather flat.
- The Aussie is still down three cents in the two weeks since Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. Presidency and triggered a jump in inflation wagers and Treasury yields.
- Our AUD/USD outlook remains bullish. A sustained break above 0.7416, the 23.6% retracement of this month's move would test 0.7484. Our long targets 0.7560.
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