EUR/USD Cannot Defy Gravity Forever, So Here's A Short-Term Play

Background
I wrote a trading comment on EURUSD on July 3 2014 entitles “Greenback to make greater gains”. That was a paper with a medium-term perspective. However, I have noted in the past week the Eurozone has seen a wealth of disappointing news in that data and on Thursday July 10, it was revealed that industrial output in France, Italy and Holland declined in May. That coupled with the poor figures from Germany earlier in the week piled on more pressure to the concerns over the regional economy.
We are in the midst of the third bank stress test and there was a renewed bout of systemic fear on July 10 as market sentiment soured on financial troubles at the family-owned holding companies behind Espirito Santo Financial Group, Portugal's largest listed bank.
Despite this the level for the EURUSD continues to show stubborn support at the 1.3600 level. This is quite striking given that when the European Central bank cut the refinancing rate to 0.15 percent and the deposit rate to -0.10 percent on June 5. The EURUSD did at one time fall to test 1.3500, a level that I had expected to be the new technical pivot. However, 1.3600 seems to be the key support, a point worth closer inspection.

Since June 2 - when the ECB action was anticipated - to the close of last week, there have been 31 observations of the end of session EURUSD rate. Just 10 have closed wider than one standard deviation from the mean - 1.3607. In the chart one can see a cyclical pattern and with the economic data from the Eurozone due for release in the coming week, there are certain trigger points that could push EURUSD lower once again as the cyclical pattern would suggest. Management and risk
This is proposition to exploit EUR weakness resulting if any of the data points listed above come in lower than expected. This is especially the case for the German ZEW or Eurozone CPI, year on year. I would expect the EUR to decline relative to its peers and especially so against the USD.
Parameters
Entry: 1.3608 New York (close July 11)

Downside Targets: 1.3593, 1.3562, 1.3531, 1.3512

Stop: 1.3692

Time horizon: Short-term.