The euro (EUR) recovered previous losses versus the US dollar (USD) after markets better priced in the risks associated with the Cypriot bail-in. The pair moved back up to 1.2969, which looks like its new resistance area, before correcting to 1.2935. The debt ridden island is expected to come up with a plan B this evening. In other news, the Italian government has yet to form a government. The country will play a key role in restoring confidence in the European markets should they come to a swift resolution.
- West Texas Intermediate Crude (OIL): the American standard in crude oil, is moving above 93.07 after yesterday’s US crude oil inventories came out negative.
- The US 500 (SPI): tracks the 500 biggest listed equities in the US, corrected after reaching all-time highs. The index is currently moving at 1547 after finding strong support at 1530.
- Weekly option volatilities for the EUR/USD picked up from 11.85 to 13.95 as fears exacerbate and push options’ premiums upwards.
USDJPY
The US dollar (USD) gained substantial ground, touching 96.12 before correcting to 95.75 against the Japanese yen (JPY). The pair looks to be touching higher highs in the long run as Japan’s new central bank head, Haruhiko Kuroda, is expected to expand the monetary base further to defeat deflation. The American economy is moving steadily into recovery with rate reduced in every new release.
Outlook
EUR/USD Pivot Point 1.2880 with a preference to go LONG at 1. 2880.
Sentiment is 42% of deals to buy EUR
USD/JPY Pivot Point 95.35 with a preference to go LONG at 95.35.
Sentiment is 40% of deals to buy USD
GBP/USD Pivot Point 1.5065 with a preference to go LONG at 1.5065.
Sentiment is 65% of deals to buy GBP
AUD/USD Pivot Point 1.0340 with a preference to go LONG at 1.0340.
Sentiment is 58% of deals to buy AUD
GOLD Pivot Point 1600 with a preference to go LONG at 1600.
Sentiment is 71% of deals to buy GOLD
OIL Pivot Point 93.90 with a preference to go SHORT at 93.90.
Sentiment is 76% of deals to buy OIL
US 500 Pivot Point 1553 with a preference to go LONG at 1553.
Sentiment is 24% to buy US 500
UK 100 Pivot Point 6340 with a preference to go LONG at 6340.
Sentiment is 19% to buy UK 100
Calendar
GBP – Retail Sales m/m at 09:30(GMT) Forecast 0.5%
USD – Unemployment Claims at 12:30(GMT) Forecast 343K
USD – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00(GMT) Forecast -1.6