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EUR/JPY Rallies To New 6-Year High

Published 11/20/2014, 03:47 AM
Updated 05/01/2024, 03:15 AM

The yen continued its relentless slide, as dollar / yen took over 118 yen handle and euro / yen topped the 149 level; a respective 7-year and 6-year high. It appears that traders are dumping their yen exposure before the elections, which Prime Minister Abe is expected to win. Not even a better-than-expected Japanese trade balance for October was enough to convince traders to stop selling the yen. Exports grew much faster-than-expected in October, probably helped by the weaker yen. 120 in dollar / yen was increasingly cited as the next target.

EUR/JPY has been rallying strongly since the beginning of November and is targeting 153.56 – which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 169.95 (2008 high) to 94.09 (2012 low) decline.

The decisive break above 61.8% Fibonacci level and a break above the daily Ichimoku cloud provided the impetus for the latest solid gains to levels last seen in 2008. The bullish market structure is expected to remain for weeks to come. The tenkan-sen and kijun-sen lines are positively aligned. Momentum is increasingly positive (based on the RSI), which is reinforcing the underlying upside bias. However there is some caution as it is currently in overbought territory. The stochastic is also in overbought territory.

To the downside the 61.8% Fibonacci level is seen as support (140.95) and below this the October 16 low at 134.13 is a good support level. A drop below this could shift the bias back to the downside.



EUR/JPY Daily Chart

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