The EUR/USD started the week rangebound within 1.0579/1.0615. Although, the widening policy outlook between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) hints at a further extension of the downtrend toward 1.0524 (Dec 2rd, 2116 low), a local dip is certainly around the corner for a short-term bullish correction to 1.0678 (100-hour moving average), 1.0740 (minor 23.6% retracement in Nov 9th to Nov 18th decline), 1.0785 (200-hour moving average), max 1.0847 (major 38.2% retrace).
The USD/JPY extended gains to 111.19. The deeply oversold conditions in the yen market suggest the possibility of a short-term correction against the US dollar to 110.30 (50-day moving average), 109.65 (100-hour moving average) and 108.84 (minor 23.6%retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 21st rise). Decent option offers trail below 102.85 at today’s expiry and could support a short-term slide.
The GBP/USD broke below the five-week ascending channel base. GBP-shorts are in charge of the market before the UK’s Autumn Statement due on Wednesday. The downside pressures are expected to gather momentum below 1.2300, as decent 1.2300-puts are in play at the first part of the week. Resistance is eyed at 1.2389 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 18st to Nov 18th decline), before 1.2443 (major 38.2% retrace) and 1.2460 (200-hour moving average).
The AUD/USD hit 0.7311 in Sydney. The negative trend is expected to reach 0.7300/0.7280 (Jun 23rd / Jun 15th dips), before a short-term rebound is considered. Light offers trail below 0.7400/0.7412 (optionality / minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 8th to Nov 21st slide), before 0.7490 (major 38.2% retrace) and 0.7532 (200-day moving average).
Gold rebounded from $1202 on Friday. The current levels could attract dip buyers and encourage a correction to $1215 (50-hour moving average), $1221 (100-hour moving average), before $1234 (minor 23.6% retracement on Nov 9th to Nov 18th decline). In the mid-run, a potential rise in inflation expectations could well enhance macro players’ appetite, hence fight back the slide on hawkish Fed expectations and higher US yields.
The WTI reversed its negative course and recovered to $47 on talks that OPEC may cut production at the Vienna meeting (Nov 30th). The upside attempts remain fragile, as downside risks prevail. Resistance is eyed at $47.50 (Fib 50% level on Oct 19th to Nov 14th decline), before $48.60 (major 61.8% retrace). Intra-day support is eyed at $45.00/44.90 (200-day moving average).