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EU Summit Gets Underway

Published 06/28/2012, 06:32 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
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ECB rate cut probability continues to rise after inflation and employment data falls; EU Summit gets underway

Economic Data

(EU) ECB: €5.2B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €3.1B prior; €772.6B parked in deposit facility vs. €747.4B prior

(RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jun 22nd: $513.1B v $512.2B prior

(UK) June Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.6% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.6%e

(DE) Germany May ILO Employment: 41,530M v 41.489M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.6% prior

(DK) Denmark May Unemployment Rate: 4.5% v 4.4%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.2% v 6.2%e

(HU) Hungary May Unemployment Rate: 11.2% v 11.3%e

(ES) Spain April Total Housing Permits M/M: -20.7% v 6.8% prior; Y/Y: -32.4% v -27.8% prior

(ES) Spain June Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e; CPI Harmonized Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e

(SE) Sweden May Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.8%e

(SE) Sweden May Trade Balance (SEK): 9.8B v 5.0Be

(DE) Germany June Unemployment Change: +7.0K v +3.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.8% v 6.7%e

(IT) Italy May PPI M/M: -0.3% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.5%e

(NO) Norway June Unemployment Rate: 2.4% v 2.3%e

(UK) Q1 Final GDP Q/Q:-0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.1%e

(UK) Q1 Current Account: -£11.2B v -£9.0Be

(UK) Q1 Final Total Business Investment Q/Q: 1.9% v 3.6%e; Y/Y: 14.8% v 14.2%e

(BE) Belgium June CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.8% prior

(EU) June Eurozone Business Climate Indicator: -0.94 v -0.87e; Consumer Confidence: -19.8 v -19.6e; economic Confidence: 89.9 v 89.6e; Industrial Confidence: -12.7 v -12.0e; Services Confidence: -7.4 v -6.0e

(PT) Portugal Jun Consumer Confidence: -51.5 v -52.6 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -4.4 v -4.6 prior

(IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.2%e

(IT) Italy Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.4%e

(ZA) South Africa May PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.3%e

Fixed Income
(DK) Denmark sold total DKK10.84B in 2-month, 6-month and 8-month Bills at negative yields

(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.42B vs. €3.75-5.5B indicated range in 2017 and 2022 Bonds - Sold €2.5B vs. €1.75-2.5B indicated in 4.75% Jun 2017 BTP reopening; avg yield 5.84% v 5.66% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.54x v 1.35x prior

Sold €2.92B vs. €2.0-3.0B indicated in 5.5% Sept 2022 BTP reopening; avg yield 6.19% v 6.03% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.28x v 1.40x prior

Notes/Observations
Much-anticipated summit of European Union leaders begins; Germany fortifies its position.

German Unemployment data rises for the third straight month.

Italy come to the market for the third time this week and sells upper end of range in 5-year and 10-year issuance; higher yields with mixed bid-to-cover ratios.

US Supreme Court decison on "Obamacare" expected today.

Equities
FTSE 100 -0.80% at 5478, DAX -1.5% at 6133, CAC-40 -1% at 3032, IBEX-35 -0.25% at 6650, FTSE MIB -0.60% at 13,217, SMI -0.40% at 5973, S&P 500 Futures -0.60% at 1318.

Equity markets are currently trading mixed ahead of the start of the EU's two day summit. The DAX had led the declines, following the release of weaker than expected employment data out of Germany. In Italy, equity markets pared their earlier losses, after the country's Treasury sold 5-yr bonds at a yield of less than 6%. Additionally the 5-yr yield paid at the auction (5.84%) was below the current market yield. In terms of specific sectors, most banks are trading mixed, as the Spanish and Italian banks have outperformed, while Barclays and Commerzbank have lagged their peers. Miners are broadly weaker, tracking the declines in commodity prices.

In UK equity movers, shares of Xstrata [XTA.UK] are lower by over 1%, on concerns that Glencore [GLEN.UK] could walk away from their merger agreement, if certain Xstrata shareholders continue to demand a higher bid. In others movers, bookmaker Ladbrokes [LAD.UK] has lost over 5% (warned on H1 profits for the digital unit), while Debenhams [DEB.UK] has declined by ~1% (issued trading update).

Air France [AF.FR] is lower on the session as the company is expected to later today present its restructuring plan. German solar names are trading broadly lower, after the government reached an agreement with the individual states on solar subsidies. Commerzbank [CBK.DE] has declined by over 3% as the company issued ~128M shares. Belgium listed Ageas [AGS.BE] has gained by more than 4%, after disclosing a settlement agreement with ABN AMRO. In Amsterdam, TomTom [TOM2.NL] is lower by over 4% on a broker downgrade.

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