An Upwards Breakout from the Purple Triangle would put a Rising Megaphone (Navy) on the Chart to Short
There’s a legal triangle on the ES chart (purple), but if ES breaks out of it upwards here, it will be putting a rising megaphone on the chart (navy blue).
In that case, you go long on the triangle breakout and short on the downwards breakout from the rising megaphone.
If ES is going to fail to break out upwards here, we should see a little topping formation up here break out downwards with a minimum target of roughly ES 2074, a likely target of 2063ish, a possible target of 2050, then 2025 and a possible ultimate target of 1900.
ES still has a high likelihood of a retrace to at least the March low before any sustainable move upwards to a significant new high. The set-up was the failed breakout from the ascending triangle that began forming in February.
If ES makes it to the March low and puts in a bottoming pattern there, it could put in a right shoulder on the potential H&S with a neckline there, or it could put in a right shoulder failure for a move to a substantially higher high.