The forward 4-quarter S&P 500 EPS estimate as of today was $122.09, up slightly from last week’s $122.05, and the first sequential increase in the forward dollar estimate since the first week of April ’15.
The P/E ratio on the forward estimate is 17.5(x). The PEG ratio is still negative given the forward growth rate. Adjusting for Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Energy, the PEG is close to 2.0(x), still towards the higher end.
The earnings yield on the S&P 500 is 5.74% versus last week’s 5.75%, a little unusual given that the S&P 500 rose slightly on the week. The year-over-year growth rate of the forward estimate fell to -0.84% from last week’s -0.74%, the 4th week in a row of negative numbers.
Analysis / Conclusion: Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)’s earnings report typically ends the quarter’s earnings report, since 487 of the S&P 500 have already reported their March ’15 quarter. There is not much to add that readers haven’t already seen. Ex-Energy and Ex-Apple, S&P 500 earnings rose +8% to +9%, which – in my opinion – is pretty healthy growth, although you do not hear about it much in the financial media.
The y/y growth of the forward estimate has stagnated now for 4 weeks, but is still less then -1%. We should start to lap easier compare’s for the Energy sector as we move through the summer. There is some interesting Energy sector data, to note, but it deserves its own note.
Here are the conclusions drawn from Q1 ’15 S&P 500 earnings:
- Once again, the Street was far too pessimistic coming into the quarter.
- Health Care and Financials, as well as Technology, fared very well, relative to the April 1 expected growth estimates.
- Most retail investors don’t realize the importance of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.
If this link was run every week, till the end of the quarter, it would tell a big part of the story.
More on the Energy sector to come over the long weekend.
Disclosure: Long Apple, WalMart and some Energy