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Downtrend for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Published 12/19/2011, 05:51 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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USD/JPY
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EUR/USD:



EUR/USD:

1.3042

Short-Term Trend: downtrend

Outlook:

A few weeks ago I favored a short position in the 1.34/1.35 area. Since then EUR has been under heavy pressure and has already declined below 1.3000 level. As the daily chart remains quite negative with prices below the declining 21-day moving average, I expect to see fruther weakness twd 1.2870 and possibly to 1.2670 before this leg lower is over and a strong counter-trend move up develops. Having said that, holding short remains my favored strategy here.

On the upside, a firm and sustained trading abv 1.3200 will suggest a temp. low has been found already....

Strategy: Holding short remains favored with a stop abv 1.3250



GBP/USD:




GBP/USD: 1.5542

Short-Term Trend: downtrend

Outlook:

GBP declined vs USD but not as much as we expected (that was due to the strength of GBP vs EUR). Right now the daily downtrend is still considered strong, however the recent price pattern tells me there is a risk for a larger move up back twd 1.5680 before the decline resumes with a bigger power. So, trying to enter short may be tricky in this market. But still, the main focus remains on the downside, so if a counter-trend rally develops, one may greet it as a good shorting opportunity. A decline below 1.5400 is needed to confirm our bearishness & to bring losses twd at least 1.5260....

Strategy: Stand aside.



USD/JPY:




USD/JPY: 77.75

Short-Term Trend: sideways

Outlook:

Nothing new here except for the fact that the daily chart has become oversold as measured by the Stochastics indicator. Actually the Stochastics indicator even tries to move to a sell signal. We still favor a Contracting Triangle here as shown on the chart. The question is, is this Contracting Triangle almost complete or in its early stages of development. In either case, a move abv 79.50 is not expected, so one can favor the downside as long as this level holds as resistance.

To confirm the bearish scenario shown above, a decline below 76.55 should be seen.

Strategy: Shorts favorable here against 79.60. The downside target is near 69.00 eventually.

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