Dovish Draghi Tempers FX Trade

EUR/USD
The pair initially rallied in the European session, as German IFO was released showing a stronger-than-expected number (German IFO Business Climate 111.2 vs. Exp. 110.4), however comments from ECB’s Draghi, who struck a dovish tone and highlighted that tensions in the bond and money markets could cause the ECB to act on policy, helped retrace the early move. As the US came to market this move to the downside was exacerbated by the weaker USD, leading the pair to firmly break through the psychological 1.3800 handle. Although some reverse in the late move was noted on stronger US data and Ukrainian fears the EUR failed to find the strength to fully retrace the fall. Looking ahead little in the way of tier 1 EU data for the calendar tomorrow, although US services and composite PMI should offer some opportunity for price action in the pair.

GBP/USD
A quiet European session for the pair as little in the way of data or risk events were abound to supply a direction for GBP/USD. Passing the session range-bound, if with a very slight negative tone. The weaker USD, however, which dictated price movement for its peers, failed to take hold in GBP/USD. Looking ahead the outlook seems fuller with UK retail sales and US University of Michigan Confidence offering participants chances for price action.

USD/JPY
The pair spent much of the day in a slow upside move as JPY lost ground due to slight risk-on sentiment being the theme for the first half of the European session. However after the North American open, and more specifically the release of the US weekly jobs report (US Initial Jobless Claims 329K vs. Exp. 315K and US Continuing Claims 2680K vs. Exp. 2745K), the USD strength was in focus. The sell-off in equities noted around the same time helped apply pressure to the USD but was not the catalyst for the weakness. This resulted in the pair posting a large move into the red, subsequently retracing and surpassing all the work already done through the day. The risk averse tone that was noted late in the session supported the downside price action as USD/JPY failed to regain its early upside. Looking forward participants will get to digest the awaited release of Japanese National and Tokyo CPIs.