Dollar To Pull Back Today?

The past 10 days or so have had me researching several solutions, testing some theories and yesterday suddenly, I think, recognising the final solution. If I’m right, it’s actually interesting and does bring some of the apparent, mild conflicts back into a more wholesome result. However, there is a strong risk that we’ll not see the final outcome this week.

The losses in EURUSD began to develop as I had forecast, but then slipped below my target. This was the beginning of realising the solution. What this will mean for now is an extension of the choppy behaviour we have witnessed since 2 weeks ago. Today should retain that choppy outlook and probably into tomorrow at the very least. We’re likely to see two-way trading, potentially quite frustrating but there are some firm guidelines to the range we should see. First, to confirm my suspicions we’ll need a pullback lower in the Dollar today.

The above relates specifically to EURUSD and USDCHF although what is happening in the Continentals is, in its own way related to GBPUSD also – and which saw stronger losses that expected. I do have some doubts about the entire structure from the 1.7190 high so in the short term there are some risks in terms of identifying targets. However, in the larger picture what is happening overall suits the entire group of Europeans.

AUDUSD topped out perfectly, initially within 1 point … but then blipped up another 3 points. However, the reversal is encouraging and in line with the original view. It’s not a matter of managing the losses.

Even USDJPY failed to reverse as I had expected and merely extended its rally. It is the underlying view and as I already mentioned before, the 24 & 48 week cycle lows (around 1 month ago) appear to be wielding their power. There’s room for a correction very soon but overall the outlook is bullish and thus retain this expectation. What I have found difficult is the noisy structure that has clearly hidden the correct count. This is having the same impact on EURJPY that feigns to move one way, then the other. It should push higher but I can’t see it being in a straight line. Care is needed until the structure is confirmed.