Dollar weakens broadly today as markets await a busy week ahead with four central bank meetings. Fed is widely expected to hike interest rate by 25bps this week. However, such expectation should be fully priced in, traders are looking through the FOMC meeting and turning cautious. In particular, Fed's updated Summary of Projections (SEP) and the monetary policy outlook for the rest of the year would be crucial to Dollar's trend in near term. Technically, the dollar index could dip further towards 100.66 key near term support before FOMC announcement on Wednesday.
BoJ, BoE, SNB to meet
In addition to FOMC meeting, BoJ, BoE and SNB will announce monetary policy decisions this week. All are scheduled for Thursday and thus, we'll have a 24 hours of central bank frenzy from Wednesday to Thursday. All, BoJ, BoE and SNB are expected to stand pat. BoJ is expected to maintain the so called yield curve control framework. BoE's bias would likely stay neutral but may adjust its view on upside risks in inflation. The SNB is expected to leave its sight deposit rate unchanged at -0.75%. These three central bank announcements could end up being non-events.
Oil slump could drag down CAD
Oil's extended decline is a development to watch in the financial markets this week. WTI crude oil dips to as low as 47.9 so far today, comparing to 54.94 high made last month. Oil price is current reversing the rally triggered by OPEC's agreement to cut production since December. It's now being weighed down by the surge in US productions and slower than expected fall in global supplies. WTI crude oil could now dip further to 44.07 fibonacci level. And that's possibly a factor to push USD/CAD through 1.3598 key resistance.
Elsewhere...
Japan domestic CGPI dropped -3.2% yoy in February, well below expectation of 1.0% yoy. Machine orders rose 1.0% mom in January, above expectation of 0.0% mom. Tertiary industry index rose 0.0% mom in January versus expectation of 0.2% mom. The rest of the calendar is light together with US labor market condition index featured.