Market movers today
The main event will be the FOMC statement tonight. There will be no press conference or new projections, so focus will be on the tone of the statement. We expect only small changes to the statement and most importantly we expect it to repeat that the FOMC can 'be patient in beginning to normalise the stance of monetary policy'. At the December press conference, Yellen explained that patient is consistent with the Fed staying on hold for at least the coming two meetings. This would in effect rule out hikes at the March and April FOMC meetings. We expect no major market reaction to the statement. More important will be the signals in upcoming Fed speeches and not least the Employment Cost Index for Q4 released on Friday, which will give more input to whether wage growth is as subdued as indicated by the recent employment report.
Otherwise the data calendar is quite thin. Only indicators of interest will be German and French consumer confidence this morning. Consumer confidence in euro-area countries have ticked higher again recently following a moderation during most of 2014.
The Ukraine crisis has escalated again recently and may get increasing focus in markets if new sanctions come on the table.
In Denmark and Norway unemployment rates are due and from Norway we will also get industrial confidence data.
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