In the US, the most important release today is the ISM non-manufacturing index for March. The index has declined for four consecutive months reflecting the slowdown in the economy, which began by the end of 2015. While the index may have been a bit too high previously, we now think the current level is actually too low compared to other economic indicators. Thus we expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to have rebounded in March.
In the UK, focus is on the PMI services index in March. While consensus is expecting a rebound, we expect it to stay weak suggesting that the economy has slowed ahead of the EU referendum in line with the latest NIESR GDP estimate, which indicated that growth has slowed to 0.3% q/q in Q1.
We expect euro area retail sales were unchanged in February on the back of the mixed German and French retail sales data. Note that despite some weakness lately in data related to private consumption, it is not to the same extent as for the manufacturing sector and we expect private consumption to be the driving force of the growth in 2016. PMI services figures are released for Spain and Italy as well.
In Sweden, PMI services in March and production figures for February are due.
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