The German IFO is likely to mirror the PMI data and show a flat to moderate improvement. Our forecast for IFO expectations at 100.1 in May from 100.4 in April is slightly below consensus at 100.6 but given the positive surprise in German PMI, there may be some upside risk to our estimate. After falling sharply in early January following the Emerging Markets' turmoil, IFO expectations have rebounded slightly in the past two months hovering around the long-term average and hence point to growth around trend.
A range of ECB speeches are due today with the most important being vice president Vitor Constancio and ECB chief economist Peter Praet. Constancio yesterday said he personally believes inflation will be very low and sometimes negative for some months but in Q4 will start rising to reach 2% in 2018.
In the US house price data are released this afternoon and Fed's Harker, Kashkari and Kaplan will speak later in the day. Fed's Harker yesterday said he could easily see 2-3 hikes in 2016 joining the hawkish Fed choir.
There are no key releases in Scandi today but Riksbank deputy governor Henry Ohlsson will spak later today at a seminar.
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