Market Movers
The main event is the FOMC meeting tonight. The updated 'dots' will attract a lot of attention and we believe that several members have lowered their expected path for the Fed funds rate. In terms of the statement we expect the tone to be slightly more upbeat than in April given the latest more positive run of US data but we do not expect any major changes in the forward-looking part of the statement. At the following press conference key will be the FOMC view on how much of the Q1 economic weakness is likely to be temporary and how this, combined with the most recent more positive data, has affected its economic outlook.
In the UK the minutes from the MPC's June meeting and average earnings are released. Both releases will attract attention as they are a key determinant for the timing of the first Bank of England rate hike.
In the euro zone the final inflation figure for May will give more information about the surprise jump in core inflation to 0.9% y/y from 0.6% y/y. We believe some of it was temporary and that core inflation will decline back to 0.8% y/y in June.
NIER survey in Sweden.
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