This morning the Dallas Fed released its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) for June. The latest general business activity index increased in June after two months of decreases. The General Activity index came in at -18.3, up from -20.8 in April. Other measures of manufacturing activity reflected continued declines.
Here is an excerpt from the latest report:
Texas factory activity declined again in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a second consecutive negative reading but rose from -13.1 to -7.0, suggesting the pace of contraction eased somewhat from May.
Other measures of current manufacturing activity also reflected continued declines this month. The new orders index held steady at -14.2, while the growth rate of orders index fell four points to -18.6. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes remained negative for a second month but edged up, coming in at -9.3 and -8.6, respectively.
Perceptions of broader business conditions stayed pessimistic in June. The general business activity index has been negative since January 2015 and came in at -18.3 this month, up slightly from its May reading. The company outlook index posted a seventh consecutive negative reading but rose 5 points to -11.0.
Monthly data for this indicator only dates back to 2004, so it is difficult to see the full potential of this indicator without several business cycles of data. Nevertheless, it is an interesting and important regional manufacturing indicator. The Dallas Fed on the TMOS importance:
Texas is important to the nation’s manufacturing output. The state produced $159 billion in manufactured goods in 2008, roughly 9.5 percent of the country’s manufacturing output. Texas ranks second behind California in factory production and first as an exporter of manufactured goods.
Texas turns out a large share of the country’s production of petroleum and coal products, reflecting the significance of the region’s refining industry. Texas also produces over 10 percent of the nation’s computer and electronics products and nonmetallic mineral products, such as brick, glass and cement.
Here is a snapshot of the complete TMOS.
The next chart is an overlay of the General Business Activity Index and the Future Outlook Index — the outlook six months ahead.
For comparison, here is the latest ISM Manufacturing survey.
Let's compare all five Regional Manufacturing indicators. Here is a three-month moving average overlay of each since 2001 (for those with data).
Here is the same chart including the average of the five for the latest month with complete data.
Here are the remaining four monthly manufacturing indicators that we track:
Kansas City Manufacturing Survey
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Fifth District Manufacturing Survey (Richmond)