This morning the gold price has climbed to its highest since November 2013 as speculators assess what Yellen may say later on and as China data improves gold market sentiment. Silver, platinum and palladium also all rose.
Should the gold price climb today, making five consecutive days of gains, then this will be gold’s longest rally since August when it gained 5.3%. As of yesterday’s COMEX close gold remains the best performing asset (compared to stocks and bonds) since December’s taper.
Yellen’s up next
Later today new Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will deliver her first testimony to Congress since taking over from Bernanke. With little else on the economic agenda this week, this will no doubt set the tone in the markets for the next few days.
Expect to see question on tapering and labour. Given two consecutive, poor jobs reports, many are expecting Yellen to hint at a slowdown in tapering. Should there be a suggestions of the pace of tapering being slowed, or even paused, then this will prove positive for both gold and equities and see a reverse in the current inverse relationship between the two.
Goldman’s have issued five question which they would like to see answered at today’s testimony:
1. How much does Ms. Yellen worry about the softer data?
2. How are Fed officials thinking about the EM weakness?
3. What is the hurdle for stopping the taper?
4. How much slack does the economy have?
5. What will happen to forward guidance?
Stellar coin demand
American gold Eagle coin sales in January hit 62,500, the highest since April 2013. Former U.S. Mint Director Ed Moy told TheStreet’s Joe Deaux that this was still below the monthly average seen when the Mint was posting record sales.
Another area where coin demand was reported as impressive yet disappointing was China, the China Gold Association’s latest report shows Chinese gold coin demand dropped by 1.07% year-on-year to 25.03 tons in 2013. According to the CGA, this was in line with the government’s anti-corruption campaign.
News of China’s record demand also helped drive the gold price, volumes on the SGE’s spot contract climbed to 25,725 kg yesterday, its highest since May following the April price crash.
In other news
India’s Trade Association has recommended a relaxation of gold controls, following the 70% reduction in gold imports last month.
Barclays have issued a report in which they state that primary silver supply will fall by 4-6% this year, however overall silver mine supply will continue to increase into 2015. The report explains that overall mined supply is not very price sensitive, as shown by the 160% fluctuations in the price in last five years will little impact on supply. This is due to the fact that 71% of silver supply is thanks to by-product production.